Page Title

Themes

The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be

Consumer Price Index & Inflation forecasts [07/02/2023]

Monthly evolution of the consumer price index and of the so-called health index, which is used for the price indexation of wages, social benefits and house-rent.

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be

The FPB publishes macroeconomic forecasts each year in February and in September. They are used to draw up or adjust the federal budget. The ultimate responsibility for those short-term forecasts (also known as the 'Economic Budget') lies with the board of the National Accounts Institute.

Monthly inflation forecasts are updated every first Tuesday of the month (except for August).

In February, the FPB also publishes a macroeconomic projection for the Belgian economy with a time horizon of six years, as a contribution to the preparation of the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme. An updated and more detailed projection is published in June. In July, regional projections (for the three Belgian regions), consistent with the June national projection, are published.

These forecasts and projections are made under an unchanged policy assumption. Only formally decided and sufficiently detailed measures are taken into account. 

In addition, scenario analyses are made to estimate the impact of external shocks or policy measures on the economic system.

Methods and tools 

The first year of the February projection and the first two years of the June projection result from the combined use of the quarterly MODTRIM model, the annual HERMES model and the monthly inflation module. Subsequent years are simulated only with HERMES. For a description of MODTRIM, see Working Paper 05-14. For a description of HERMES, see Working Paper 13-13 and DC2019 WP 1. For examples of scenario analyses with HERMES, see Working Paper 10-18

HERMREG is a multi-regional model developed and used in collaboration with the Institut bruxellois de statistique et d’analyse (IBSA), Statistiek Vlaanderen and the Institut wallon de l'évaluation, de la prospective et de la statistique (IWEPS). The top-down version of HERMREG produces projections that are consistent with national projections. The bottom-up version of HERMREG is used for scenario analyses. 

For a description of the bottom-up version of HERMREG and examples of regional scenario analyses, see Working Paper 1-22 and Working Paper 2-22

Figures

The statistical annexes of the national and regional outlooks can be consulted in the Data section. 

  The last five press releases [More]

  The last five databases [More]

  The last five publications [More]

Contact

  • https://macro.plan.be
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots