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The FPB’s studies cover 11 main themes: Energy, Environmental economic accounts and analyses, International economy, Labour market, Macroeconomic forecasts and analyses, Public finances, Sectoral accounts and analyses, Social protection, demography and prospective studies, Structural studies, Sustainable development, Transport.

Financial developments for social protection



Primary work incapacity and disability of employees in Belgium: which explanatory factors? An analysis based on EU-SILC data [10/05/2022]

In the context of the significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the health and disability insurance observed over the last 20 years in Belgium, we seek to develop an explanatory model for work incapacity and disability. On the basis of SILC data, we attempt to identify and prioritise the effects of different factors that may influence the probability of employees' transitions between socio-economic statutes, and in particular to and from primary incapacity and disability.



Within the short-term and medium-term macroeconomic outlooks, the financial flows related to social security are handled in detail, consistent with employment policy (see ‘Labour market’) and alternative financing of social security. The most recent government measures are also taken into account.

In the context of population ageing (see ‘Population’), the FPB draws up long-term financial outlooks for the social protection schemes within the overall topic of public finances. In these projections, the development of socioeconomic behaviours, the number of beneficiaries of social allowances and the corresponding amounts – which themselves react to the dynamics of salaries and career evolution – are followed closely. The assessment of public spending on health care differentiates between expenditure on acute care and expenditure on long-term care. The long-term studies, which are based on macroeconomic and social policy assumptions, show the developments of public finances, budget deficits or surpluses.

Methods and instruments

  • Social security modules have been developed within the macroeconomic models MODTRIM, HERMES and HERMREG; they are supplied with a detailed exogenous analysis of social payments.
  • On the basis of the population projections (see “Population projections” in WP 7-06), the results of the different peripheral models quoted below – with respect to specific socioeconomic behaviours and to pension and health care expenditure – are fed into the long-term model, MALTESE. This model provides a projection of all principal determinants of the long-term evolution of the expenditure on social protection within the overall framework of public finances (see MALTESE in WP 7-06).
  • The MALTDEMO model is used to assess the future evolution of education and participation rates, while the HORBLOK model provides a projection of the number of pensioners in the different statutory pension schemes (see ‘Socio-demographic models’ in WP 7-06).
  • The future pension amount is examined in separate models governed by specific calculation rules: PENSION for the employees’ scheme, MOSES for the self-employed scheme and PUBLIC for the civil servants’ pensions (see ‘Social protection models’ in WP 7-06).
  • Public spending on health care is assessed using two models: an econometric model showing real acute expenditure per capita in function of specific determinants, and a macro-projection model for long-term care expenditure, which is mainly affected by ageing.

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