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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Dans le cadre de la mise au point d’un modèle entrées-sorties environnemental pour la Flandre, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a élaboré, à la demande de l’administration flamande, des tableaux entrées-sorties monétaires pour la Flandre, et ce, pour l’année 2003. Afin d’accroître la cohérence de cet exercice, un cadre entrées-sorties interrégional a été élaboré pour la Belgique entière (toutes les Régions). Ce cadre interrégional a été obtenu par dérivation au départ du cadre entrées-sorties national à l’aide de méthodes « top-down ». Ce Working Paper donne un aperçu de la méthodologie de compilation ainsi que les résultats d’une analyse entrées-sorties limitée.
Working Papers - Working Paper 18-08 (fr), (nl),
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre pour l’Entreprise et la Simplification les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 10 septembre 2008.
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic forecasts 2009 (fr), (nl),
Ce rapport présente les résultats de la régionalisation des perspectives économiques nationales du Bureau fédéral du Plan pour la période 2007-2013. Il s’agit de la deuxième étude de ce type. Le premier rapport, qui avait été publié en janvier 2008, visait à présenter les résultats de la régionalisation des perspectives économiques nationales 2007-2012 publiées en mai 2007.
Autres publications - OPHERMREG0802 (fr), (nl),
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2% for the period 2008-2013. A slowdown is expected for the Belgian economy in 2008 and 2009 (GDP growth of only 1.7%), mainly as a consequence of less dynamic exports and a moderate increase in domestic demand. Belgian GDP growth should accelerate in 2010, thanks to the more favourable international environment and a more dynamic development of domestic demand. From 2011 onwards, Belgian GDP growth should stabilise slightly above its potential (equal to 2% on average). Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.7% for the period 2008-2013, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ real disposable income. Purchasing power will be handicapped in 2008 by the high inflation rate (3.8%), but should be underpinned afterwards by employment growth and by higher increases in wage rates and social benefits. Investment growth should reach 2.8% for the period 2008-2013, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by business profitability and stable demand prospects after 2009). Growth in exports should reach 5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.1%-points. After an acceleration in 2008, the inflation rate should stabilise slightly below 2% for the period 2009-2013. This rather low inflation rate is mainly due to a moderate increase in imported costs and the persistence of a negative output gap until 2013.The expected evolution of employment reflects a relatively favourable macroeconomic environment and persistently modest labour productivity growth (1.2% per year). After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2007 (70,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 42,000 units should be created every year during the period 2008-2013. Between 2007 and 2013, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 35,000 but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the increase in the labour force (notably explained by incoming migration), the fall in unemployment should be limited to 22,000 persons. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 12.6% in 2007 to 11.6% in 2013.Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 0.3% of GDP in 2008, widening to 0.8% of GDP in 2009 and 0.9% of GDP in 2010, before gradually falling to 0.4% by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio will continue to decline, from 84.8% in 2007 to 70.8% in 2013. [STU 2-08 was finalised on 26 May 2008]
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-08 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic outlook 2008-2013 (fr), (nl),
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 104 (fr), (nl),
In January 2008, the results of an initial exercise aimed at breaking down the national economic projections for the period 2007-2012 into regional projections were published. This study is the result of a collaboration between the Federal Planning Bureau, the Brussels Institute for Analysis and Statistics (IBSA), the Research Centre of the Flemish Government (SVR) and the Walloon Institute for Evaluation, Prospects and Statistics (IWEPS).
Articles - Article 2008030704
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre de l’Economie les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique.
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic forecasts 2008 (2) (fr), (nl),
La Belgique, avec l’Italie, se distingue par une disparité élevée et persistante des taux de chômage régionaux. La négociation centralisée au niveau sectoriel national est souvent évoquée pour expliquer ce phénomène. Un modèle macroéconomique de négociation est développé pour rendre compte à la fois de la disparité des taux de chômage et de l’amplification de celle-ci par des effets d’hystérèse. L’adéquation des hypothèses avec la réalité belge est ensuite envisagée. Un critère d’efficience globale de la centralisation est proposé et appliqué à la Belgique. L’approche permet aussi d’éclairer la question de la régionalisation des négociations salariales. Elle permet aussi d’apprécier les faiblesses des analyses empiriques dont nous disposons actuellement. Si l’analyse confirme le rôle que peut jouer la centralisation des négociations salariales pour expliquer les disparités du chômage, elle indique cependant que ce rôle est limité mais important si il débouche sur un processus d’accumulation de chômage structurel. Aujourd’hui, la grande partie de ces disparités est devenue structurelle et nécessite des politiques adaptées.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-08 (fr),
Autres publications - OPHERMREG0801 (fr), (nl),
On the basis of its short term economic forecast of September and revised figures for the medium-term international economic environment, the FPB has updated its medium-term outlook 2007-2012. GDP growth should reach 2.1% on average and should be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the structural loss of export market shares should remain significant: while growth in our potential export markets will reach 6.8% a year on average, exports are expected to record an average annual increase of 5.4%.
The growth of private consumption (1.8% on average) should be in line with the growth of real disposable income (1.9% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should continue to register sustained growth, attaining an average of 3.1%, mainly reflecting an increase in business investment, but also an acceleration of public investment in view of the local elections of 2012. Inflation (as measured by private consumption deflator growth) should be below 2% on average during the projection period, despite an acceleration in 2008: inflation could even climb to 2.5% next year, according to the latest update of the monthly inflation forecasts of FPB. Limited wage increases (lower than productivity gains), the increase in interest rates, a negative output gap and a moderate increase in imported costs are the main factors accounting for the low inflation rate in the medium term.
Total employment will increase by more than 40,000 jobs a year on average during the projection period, due to sustained economic growth combined with persistently modest labour productivity (1.4% per year). Due to ongoing structural shifts in the sectoral composition of employment, the manufacturing industry will incur a further loss of 6,000 jobs a year on average, whereas market services should gain 46,000 jobs a year. The employment rate is expected to increase from 62.6% in 2006 to 65.4% in 2012; the fall in the unemployment rate (from 13.8% in 2006 to 11.0% in 2012 -broad definition) should accelerate at the end of the projection period, when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale.
The pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled during the period 2001-2012 compared with the previous decade, despite very similar average economic growth rates for both periods.
STU 04-07 was finalised on 10 December 2007.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-07 (en),
En application de la loi du 21 décembre 1994, l’Institut des comptes nationaux (ICN) a communiqué au ministre de l’Economie les chiffres du budget économique. Selon la procédure prévue, le Bureau fédéral du Plan (BFP) a soumis une proposition de budget économique au comité scientifique et au conseil d’administration de l’ICN. Cette dernière instance adopte les chiffres définitifs et en porte la responsabilité finale. Le comité scientifique a émis un avis favorable sur le budget économique. Les présentes prévisions tiennent compte des agrégats annuels publiés dans la Partie 2 des Comptes nationaux 2006 (‘Comptes détaillés et tableaux’) et des agrégats trimestriels publiés jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007.
Les hypothèses concernant l’environnement international sont basées sur les prévisions de printemps de la Commission européenne (actualisées sur la base des observations trimestrielles jusqu’au deuxième trimestre 2007), sur les prévisions intérimaires de la Commission européenne (publiées le 11 septembre), et enfin, sur les estimations trimestrielles du commerce mondial de biens effectuées par le Centraal Planbureau néerlandais. L’évolution des variables financières (taux de change, taux d’intérêt, prix du pétrole) reflète les anticipations des marchés financiers au 24 septembre. Les prévisions pour la Belgique ont été générées au moyen des versions trimestrielle et annuelle du modèle MODTRIM développé par le BFP. Ces prévisions ont été finalisées le 28 septembre 2007.
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic forecasts 2008 (fr), (nl),
If unemployment benefits are indexed to gross wages and the replacement rate between unemployment benefits and net wages affects the wage rate, then cutting taxes falling on the supply of labour (personal income taxes or employees' social-security contributions) increases employment more than reducing taxes falling on the demand for labour (employers' social-security contributions).
Articles - Article 2007100506
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low- and high-wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age- and wage-related labour cost reduction policies.
Articles - Article 2007100505
This working paper gives an overview of recent research aimed at refining forecasts and analysis of Belgian foreign trade. Regarding export markets, a new leading indicator is introduced as an additional tool for assessing the growth profile for Belgium's potential export markets in the first quarters to be forecast. With respect to exports, an analysis is made concerning the considerable and partly unexplained loss of export market share in recent years. It appears that (a lack of) competitiveness plays an important role in the evolution of Belgium's export market share, but it cannot explain it entirely.
Articles - Article 2007100503
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-07 (nl),
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low and high wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age and wage related labour cost reducing policies. The age structure of salaried employment in each branch of activity is embedded in a three-stage mechanism. First, aggregate demand and the relative cost of labour to capital determine salaried employment. Next, relative wages allocate employment among three major labour categories: low-paid jobs, high-paid jobs and special-employment programmes. Finally, within each labour category relative wages allocate employment between the young (aged less than fifty) and the elderly (aged fifty or more).
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-07 (en),
Every three years, each EU member state is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme ( NRP ). Gauged by the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau, compliance with the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP will still require sizable efforts, especially regarding the labour market. Furthermore, our analysis shows that reducing social security contributions in order to lower the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP , is efficient in increasing the employment rate, especially when targeted at low wage earners, but also that such policies have a negative effect on the objectives related to public finances and CO 2 emissions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-07 (fr),
This working paper gives an overview of the Modtrim team’s recent research in the field of Belgian exports and export markets. In the first chapter a new leading indicator is introduced as a supplementary tool to determine a growth profile for Belgium’s potential export markets in the first quarters of the forecasting period. In the second chapter, an attempt is made to improve forecasts of Belgium’s exports by breaking down the model equation into a goods and a services component. Finally, the third chapter reveals that (a lack of) competitiveness is probably not the only reason for the losses of export market share in Belgium and in some of its main trading partners in the past 25 years.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-07 (en),
The medium-term outlook for Belgium points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.1% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly higher than the potential rate (2.0%) and similar to the average growth rate of the euro area. This pace of growth follows a strong rebound in 2006 (3.0%), mainly driven by domestic demand, in a context of an improvement in international economic activity.
The average yearly growth rate for private consumption should reach 1.8% during the period 2007-2012, which is slightly lower than the increase in households’ disposable income. Purchasing power will especially be underpinned by employment growth in 2007 and 2008 and by higher increases in wages and social benefits at the end of the projection period. Investment growth should reach 2.7% during the period 2007-2012, reflecting the path of business investment growth (supported by high business profitability and stable demand prospects), but also an acceleration in public investment at the end of the projection period. Growth in exports should reach 5.7% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should amount to 0.2%-points. The external surplus, which was strongly reduced between 2002 and 2005, should (slowly) increase from 2007 onwards and attain 3.1% of GDP in 2012. The combination of moderate increases in domestic costs and limited rises in imported costs should allow the inflation rate to remain below 2% in the medium term.
The expected evolution of employment reflects a favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases (mainly at the start of the period) and various measures taken to promote employment. After a particularly high number of new jobs created in 2006 (44,000), employment growth should remain sustained: about 38,000 units should be created every year during the period 2007-2012. Between 2006 and 2012, manufacturing industrial employment should fall by 41,000 units but the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 256,000. As the number of newly created jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) should fall from 13.9% in 2006 to 12.0% in 2012.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public accounts are expected to present a net public financing surplus in 2007 (+0.1% of GDP) and to deteriorate in 2008 (-0.5% of GDP). During the following years, the net public financing requirement should gradually decline and the equilibrium should be restored at the end of the projection period, mainly thanks to a decrease in interest charges on the public debt. Consequently, the total public debt to GDP ratio is expected to decline from 87.5% in 2006 to 69.5% in 2012.
STU 2-07 was finalised on 18 May 2007.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-07 (en),
Le BFP publie depuis le début des années quatre-vingt des perspectives à moyen terme pour l’économie belge. Le document de travail ci-joint analyse les erreurs de projections pour les principaux indicateurs macro-économiques sur la période 1987-2005 et tente d’identifier l’origine de celles-ci. Une telle analyse vise à donner aux utilisateurs des perspectives une idée sur l’ampleur des incertitudes entourant de tels exercices et à mettre en évidence certaines faiblesses méthodologiques afin d’y remédier.
Working Papers - Working paper 08-07 (en),
The economic outlook for the Belgian economy is published each year by the Federal Planning Bureau in spring and presented to the representatives of the social partners within the Central Economic Council. This baseline is a no-policy-change scenario, notably with regard to fiscal and social policies, that is based upon an international environment founded on projections prepared by international institutions. In this working paper past projection errors are scrutinised to give users a broad idea of the precision of the projections and also to identify possible methodological weaknesses that should be improved.
Articles - Article 2007051802
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic outlook 2007-2012 (fr), (nl),
In the October update of the FPB medium-term outlook for Belgium, GDP growth reaches an average of 2.3% for the 2006-2011 period. This development will be driven by both domestic demand and exports, although the contribution of net exports to economic growth is expected to be limited. The growth of private consumption (1.9% on average) should be in line with the growth of household disposable income in real terms (2% on average). Gross fixed capital formation should grow by 2.7% (on average). The structural loss of export market shares should remain significant, with exports increasing by 5.5% a year on average, compared with a 6.8% growth in our potential export markets.
After climbing to 2.4% in 2006 because of high energy prices, inflation (as measured by the private consumption deflator) should fall below 2% in the medium term, mainly because of limited wage growth, the increase in interest rates and moderate rises in prices of imports (notably owing to the decrease in oil prices). Total employment is expected to increase by about 38,500 jobs a year during the 2006-2011 period, despite new job losses in manufacturing. The factors behind this performance are: a relatively favourable macroeconomic context, limited wage increases, a further small reduction in working time and various measures taken to promote employment. Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate is expected to be limited due to the substantial rise in the labour force. However, at the end of the projection period - when baby-boomers will leave the labour force on a massive scale - the growth of the labour force should lose momentum, allowing the decrease in the unemployment rate to accelerate.
All in all, economic growth should be stronger for the next six years compared to the previous six years, leading to the same average GDP growth rate during the period 2000-2011 as during the period 1990-1999. At the same time, the pace of employment growth should have nearly doubled (yearly 35,000 on average during the same period 2000-2011, against slightly less than 20,000 yearly during the former decade), reflecting a considerable decline in productivity gains.
This medium term outlook does not take into account the measures taken within the framework of the 2007 budget.
STU 4-06 was finalised on 11 December 2006.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-06 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic forecasts 2007 (fr), (nl),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
