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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
Closed series - Planning paper 115 (fr), (nl),
This paper seeks to understand how the current tax subsidy for the ownership and use of employer-provided cars influence behaviour by its recipients. We first seek to clarify how it affects the choice about cars, i.e. the number of cars a household owns, their engine size and their value. Second, we study the impact of the subsidy on the propensity to use a car for commuting and the number of kilometres driven for commuting and for other, private purposes. The analysis has been made on the basis of the BELDAM survey, a rich dataset on mobility behaviour in Belgium.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-16 (en),
Reports - OPREP201602 (fr),
Other publications - OPREP201601 (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl), (fr), (nl),
Reports - OPREP201605 (mix), (mix),
This paper analyses the importance of the production of alcoholic beverages for the Belgian economy, with a particular focus on beer. First, the paper provides an outline of the recent development of production, imports, exports and domestic use of alcoholic beverages. This product analysis is complemented by a study of the branch of alcoholic beverages in which production, added value, investments and employment are discussed. Finally, production, revenue and employment multipliers are calculated using the input-output tables for the year 2010, as well as the total contribution of the whole production and distribution chain of the produced and imported alcoholic beverages to Belgian GDP and employment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-16 (mix),
Improving the functioning of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is back on the agenda, especially as the decline in public investment resulting from fiscal adjustment processes implemented according to the current Pact rules is seen as a brake on future economic growth. When discussions about a Pact revision in 2005 were under way, several major authors (for instance: Blanchard and Giavazzi in CEPR February 2004) suggested reverting to a golden rule under which the deficit would exclude investment expenditure, net of amortization. The Pact was revised in 2005 but this proposal was not adopted. This paper presents a new attempt to integrate a proper accounting of investment into the Pact by modifying the formula of the MTO (Medium Term Objective for the budget balance), without losing the other dimensions of the present formula: the partial provisioning of the so-called cost of ageing and the accelerated debt reduction for highly indebted countries. In this way, the public investment programme becomes a centrepiece of the structural policy of a government and not the first instrument of a cyclical policy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-16 (en),
In this study, we investigate the exit rates from unemployment associated with different levels of education in Belgium during two periods characterised respectively by high (2002-2007) and low economic growth (2009-2014). Our estimated exit probabilities confirm that the chances of leaving unemployment are substantially higher for young unemployed who have followed post-secondary education. Moreover, the probabilities of leaving unemployment for low- and medium-skilled school leavers considerably deteriorated between the two periods. On the one hand, the penalty associated with lower education slightly increased while, on the other hand, the advantage associated with postgraduate tertiary education reinforced itself. Finally, our results show considerable heterogeneity according to region of residence and gender.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-15 (en),
Other publications - Input-Output Table 2010 (2015) (fr), (nl),
European Regulation 691/2011 obliges the member states of the European Union to deliver three environmental economic accounts as of 2013. The accounts concerned are the Environmental Taxes by Economic Activity (ETEA), the Air Emissions Accounts (AEA) and the Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounts (EW-MFA).
In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the EW-MFA for the years 2009-2013.
Other publications - EWMFA 2015 (fr), (nl),
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise, the third of its kind so far, is aimed at making a projection with no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing to identify elements on which transport policy should be based and to study the impact of transport policy measures.
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_15 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
This paper seeks to analyze the long term effects on traffic, environmental quality and public finance of the planned reform of fuel excise duties in Belgium. In the framework of a large scale tax reform, the Belgian federal government will implement an equalization of diesel and petrol excise rates over the 2016-2018 period.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-15 (en),
Reports - REP_SHIFT_1501 (fr), (nl),
The 2015 Ageing Report includes pension projections made in autumn 2014. For Belgium these did not take into account the new pension reform announced in the Government Agreement of October 2014. By the end of July 2015, all the different components of the reform had been legislated. This Belgian updated projection of November 2015 takes into account this pension reform.
In comparison with the 2015 Ageing Report projection, the revision of the pension cost of ageing is mainly due to the pension reform. Other new measures are also included, mainly the present indexation freeze (implying a 2% decrease of pensions in real terms) and a reduction of public employment (implying some redistribution of future pensioners across the different pension schemes). These updated projections are based on an updated database (more recent version of national accounts data in ESA 2010). In addition, some refinements of the pension models were required in order to simulate the pension reform.
Other publications - REP_COUNTRYFICH2015 (en),
In the context of the ongoing structural transformation of the economy (and a waning global productivity growth), policy makers and authorities in the most developed countries (among which is Belgium) increasingly focus on the digitisation of the economy as a mainspring for a transformation towards a knowledge- and innovation-driven economy. In this sense, the word ‘digitisation’ refers to all social, economic and societal evolutions that follow investments in ICT. As a “general purpose technology” ICT offers opportunities that surpass the pure ICT-industries, and may thus allow for serious heightening of prosperity and societal well-being. Besides the impact upon productivity, further digitisation may offer solutions for a number of complex societal challenges, such as demographic evolutions (ageing), the increasing demand for mobility, the transition towards the production of renewable energy…
Other publications - OPREP201511 (fr), (nl),
This study presents a method for decomposing the annual variation of the debt ratio among the cyclical, structural and one-off components, thus making it possible to identify the structural conditions for a positive or negative snowball effect. The study shows that the cyclical component may be significant and, depending on the year, partially hide the structural component of the endogenous debt development. The method differs from the European Commission method for estimating a cyclically-adjusted debt. Compared with it, our method estimates a cyclical component that is better correlated with the level and variation of the output gap. Finally, the study discusses the advisability and feasibility of taking into account equilibrium inflation and interest rate in the approach.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-15 (fr),
This study discusses the production and use of ICT in Belgium, and identifies its strengths and weaknesses in comparison with the neighbouring countries. It covers both ICT goods and services, noting that the production of services is almost seven times as high as the production of goods. In this study, the use of ICT is limited to their use as a production factor, but not as a consumption good. In the Belgian economy, ICT industries are characterized by their dynamism, with a high entry rate, a high labour productivity and a relatively strong profitability. Moreover, ICT services significantly contribute to foreign trade. ICT industries are closely linked with the Belgian economy. Compared to the neighbouring countries, however, ICT industries have a smaller share in the economy and a smaller share in the foreign trade of goods. Moreover, innovation in terms of patent applications is disappointing, and ICT capital has a relatively small and even diminishing contribution to economic growth. Within the Belgian ICT sector, telecommunications relatively stand out compared to the other ICT industries, with a relatively large share in the economy and services exports. They are the main user of ICT products, and can thus boost the development of ICT.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-15 (nl),
The paper analyses the long-term trend of Belgian economic growth and the more recent evolution of labour productivity including the impact of the crisis. It identifies the causes of declining trend of productivity gains by analysing the structural changes in the economy and by applying the growth accounting methodology on industry-level data. Finally, possible policy actions are detailed which minimise the negative short term impact on aggregate demand while maximising the positive effect on labour productivity growth.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-15 (en),
In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the ETEA for the years 2008-2013.
Other publications - ETEA 2015 (fr), (nl),
In this publication the National Accounts Institute presents the AEA for the years 2009-2013.
Other publications - AEA 2015 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_CEP_03 (mix),
Other publications - REP_CEP_01 (mix),
This report presents the results of an impact assessment of an increase in the social integration allowance (assistance scheme). The study which was commissioned by the State Secretary responsible for poverty reduction consists of two parts, on the one hand, an assessment of the macroeconomic and budgetary effects, including the possible return effects, of the increase and, on the other hand, an estimate of its impact on the poverty risk.
Reports - OPREP201512 (mix), (mix),
In accordance with the Law of 21 December 1994, the National Accounts Institute has transmitted the figures of the economic budget to the Minister for Economy. These macroeconomic forecasts are produced within the framework of the preparation of the federal budget for 2016. These forecasts do not take into account the government measures announced in July in the context of the preparation of the federal budget and the tax shift. This also holds for the VAT rate hike on electricity for domestic use from September onwards as this measure is part of a global agreement, the modalities of which were not available in time for integration into these forecasts.
Forecasts & Outlook - Economic outlook 2015-2016 (Sept)
Forecasts & Outlook - OPHERMREG1501 (fr), (nl),
Federal Planning Bureau
