Page Title

Publications

To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.

Documents (1093)

2005

  • STU 03-05 : Special Topic - Impacts of tax shifting operations 05/10/2005

    HEADLINES BELGIAN ECONOMY - OCTOBER 2005

    Due to a deceleration in the worldwide business cycle, Belgian economic growth weakened from the fourth quarter of 2004 onwards. Although the high level of oil prices remains an important factor of uncertainty, economic activity should gain momentum during the second half of this year. As a result, GDP growth should fall from 2.6% last year to 1.4% in 2005 and to 2.2% in 2006.

    This year, net exports as well as domestic demand should contribute less to economic growth than in 2004. While Belgian exports suffer from the slowdown in European economic growth, domestic demand is hampered by the poor performance of private and public consumption that is only partially compensated for by an acceleration in investment growth.

    Economic growth in 2006 will mainly depend on domestic demand. Private consumption growth should increase as disposable income is boosted by the personal income tax reform and investment growth should remain strong. Combined with robust export growth, this implies an acceleration of imports, resulting in a zero contribution of net exports to economic growth.

    After a net gain of 23,600 persons last year, employment is expected to record an average annual rise of 28,800 and 30,300 persons in 2005 and 2006 respectively. The unemployment rate should remain stable this year and next year.

    The rise in oil prices has pushed up underlying inflation since the beginning of this year. Together with price increases in oil-related products, this should raise headline inflation from 2.1% in 2004 to 3% in 2005 and 2.9% in 2006.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 03-05  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-05 : Special Topic - Market reform in network industries in Belgium 17/05/2005

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium (cut-off date: April 30) points towards an average GDP growth rate of 2.2% during the 2005-2010 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.1%). This pace of growth is expected to take place after a slowdown in economic growth in 2005 (1.7%) and a rebound in 2006 (2.6%). In both years Belgian economic growth should be slightly higher than in the euro area. Recent information makes the 2005 growth figure highly uncertain, with a significant downward risk.

    Despite moderate wage increases, the average yearly growth rate of private consumption should reach 1.9% during the 2005-2010 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (stimulated particularly by reductions in personal income tax and the rise in employment). Investment growth should reach 3% on average during the 2005-2010 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment but also an acceleration of public investment in 2005 and 2006. Growth in exports should be 5.5% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be 0.2%. Limited wage cost increases, lower oil prices as compared to the average level in 2005 and a negative output gap should allow inflation to remain around 1.8% in the medium term.

    The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited increases in wage costs and various policy measures. After the net creation of approximately 29,000 and 21,000 jobs in 2004 and 2005 respectively, about 40,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2006-2010 period. Between 2004 and 2010 industrial employment should fall by 51,000 persons and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 270,000. Nevertheless, in view of the growth in the labour force (mainly in the 50-64 age group) the fall in unemployment will be limited to 50,000. The unemployment rate (broad administrative statistics) is still increasing in 2005 (from 14.4% to 14.6%), but it will subsequently fall to 12.9% in 2010.

    Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public sector borrowing requirement appearing in 2005 (0.5% of GDP) and widening to 1.5% of GDP in 2006 before gradually declining to 0.7% of GDP by the end of the projection period. Nevertheless, the total public debt to GDP ratio is still in decline, from 95.8% in 2004 to 82.6% in 2010.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 02-05  Publication(en),

  • The Macroeconomic Effects of an Oil Price Shock on the World Economy : A Simulation with the NIME Model 08/04/2005

    In this Working Paper, we use the nime model to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy. We start with an overview of the nime model, and a presentation of our modelling of oil price shocks. Next, we examine the effect of a permanent 25 per cent increase in the price of oil, under the assumption that the shock is caused by an increase in the mark-up of the oil price.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 06-05  Publication(en),

  • STU 01-05 : Special Topic - Why is Belgian productivity growth declining? 25/03/2005

    In 2004, economic growth in Belgium amounted to 2.7% (GDP at constant prices), which is higher than the euro area average due to the strength of Belgian domestic demand. The economic recovery, triggered by an improvement in the international business climate from mid-2003 onwards, resulted in quarter-on-quarter growth rates between 0.7% and 0.8%, but weakened to 0.4% in the last quarter of 2004.

    Economic growth should gain momentum during the course of this year, which is mainly due to the quarterly profile of exports. In fact, export growth should temporarily weaken during the first half of this year due to lower foreign demand growth and the appreciation of the euro during the last two quarters of 2004, which hampers competitiveness with respect to the other currency areas. Private con-sumption (+1.8%) should increase at a faster pace than purchasing power (+1.4%) for the third con-secutive year. Stimulated by the ongoing recovery of business profitability, low interest rates and gradually improving demand prospects, real business investment growth should strengthen to 3.3% this year. All in all, GDP growth at constant prices should reach 2.2% in 2005. Inflation should re-main rather stable at 2.0%.

    Employment should increase by 34,400 units this year, as compared to 28,600 in 2004. As the labour force should increase at about the same pace in 2005, the unemployment rate should stabilise this year. The employment rate should rise slightly from 61.8% in 2004 to 62.1% in 2005.

    Closed series - Short Term Update 01-05  Publication(en),

  • European R&D Strategy: impact and feasibility study for Belgium 14/03/2005

    Following the Lisbon strategy designed to transform the European economy into the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based society, the Barcelona Summit quantified one of the available instruments to reach this ambitious objective by fixing the amount of resources which have to be devoted to r&d by 2010, at 3% of the European gdp.


    What could be the implications of the Barcelona objective in terms of the main economic variables for Belgium and the eu? What are the needs for human capital to reach this objective? How are these needs covered by the current trends in the supply of qualified labour in Belgium? These are the main questions analysed in the present working paper.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 03-05  Publication(en),

First page Previous page  32 of 44  Next page Last page
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots