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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
On October 17, 2014, the Federal Planning Bureau published the fifth edition of its triennial long-term energy outlook. The report describes a Reference scenario up to 2050 and demonstrates the large discrepancy between this Reference scenario and what is necessary to be on track for the EU 2030 Climate/Energy Framework as well as for the low-carbon economy by 2050, hence the need for additional policies and measures. This observation led to the writing of this paper in which three policy driven scenarios that are compatible both with the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction challenge outlined by the European Council are being scrutinised. The analysis encompasses environmental, energy system, economic and social impacts.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-15 (en),
This Working Paper presents the methodological progress made in projecting international migration. The new methodology is notably based on an analysis of migration flows per nationality and on statistics on reasons for migrating, in order to assess whether economic variables constitute relevant determinants of migration. If they do, the impact of economic determinants on immigration is estimated using econometric methods. The methodology also takes into account the increasing globalization and mobility as well as the expected growth of the global population which boost international migration flows (immigration and emigration). Finally, it grants more stability to the long-term migration projections and, therefore, to the population projections; the annual revisions of long-term migration will be less dependent on the short-term evolution of migration flows.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-15 (en), (fr),
This article presents a traditional shift-share decomposition to identify contributions of three effects on the rise in the hourly wage cost in Belgium: changes in the industry composition of total hours worked (composition effect), changes in the structure of employment in terms of categories of workers (employment structure effect), and increases in the hourly wage cost of these individual categories (wage effect).
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-15 (fr),
This paper studies wage increases in Belgium over the period 2000-2010. It specifically aims to determine to which extent the evolution of the characteristics of the labour force (composition effects) has affected those increases. To this end, we analyse, both at the aggregate and disaggregated level, the average real wage increases in 28 industries using data from the Structure and Distribution of Earnings Survey. Together with data from the National Social Security Office, this survey offers detailed information on wages and on a large number of labour force characteristics. Our analysis is mainly based on the wage decomposition method introduced by Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973).
Our results reveal substantial composition effects during the period under review, both at the aggregate level and within individual industries. Composition effects play a decisive role in the wage increases of white collar workers, but their contribution is on average negative and considerably smaller for blue collar workers. At the aggregate level, the increase in the average age of employees and in their education level and the growing number of certain better paid professional categories have contributed the most to the wage increases during that period. On the other hand, the sectoral distribution of employment, the expansion of part-time work and the higher participation rate of women in the labour market have, though to a lesser extent, brought about wage decreases.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-14 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-14 (nl),
This Working Paper presents the methodology the Federal Planning Bureau currently utilizes to draw up the Belgian household projections by 2060. This methodology allows for detailed projections of the number of households (at the district level) by household type and according to the factual situation and not the legal situation. Thus, the projections include the different forms of living arrangements, such as cohabitation, single-parent families, single households, etc. They also guarantee the coherence with the national population projections which have been published by the Federal Planning Bureau and the Directorate-General of Statistics for several years and are based on the so-called component method.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-14 (fr),
In this paper we assess the impact of public support for R&D activities on the educational mix of R&D employees in private companies in Belgium, covering the period 2001-2009. Data on federal tax incentives in support of R&D activities are matched with R&D survey data to investigate changes in the share of R&D employees with a specific degree: PhDs; higher education (second stage and first stage respectively); and other qualifications. Estimations show that public support significantly raises the share of researchers holding a PhD. There are indications that PhDs substitute for R&D employees with a lower degree. We also show that controlling for the changes in the educational mix of R&D personnel lowers the estimates of the impact of public support on the average wages of researchers.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-14 (en),
Recent transport research suggests that car use is reaching its saturation level in many advanced economies. Particularly in metropolitan areas, car use is declining in favour of slow and public transport modes. Also young adults are found to have shifted travel preferences away from private cars. Looking at changes in transport modes for travel to work and school, we find similar trends in Belgium. The results are based on recent mobility data from the Belgian Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Socio-Economic Survey of 2001.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-14 (en),
This paper presents the models developed at the FPB to project public spending on curative care and long-term care in the medium and long term. The variables explaining curative care spending are income, the age composition of the population, the unemployment rate and technological and medical progress. This variable is approximated using two indicators, the number of new drug approvals (Farmanet data) and the approvals for non-pharmaceutical products (Food and Drug Administration data). With the exception of the latter, all drivers mentioned above increase the cost of curative care. As for long-term care spending, it is explained by income, the proportion of older people in the population and their life expectancy. Long-term care spending is positively impacted by income and ageing. Yet, due to the increase in life expectancy, the impact of ageing shifts gradually towards the oldest age group.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-14 (nl),
This working paper describes the new version of MODTRIM II, the FPB’s quarterly macroeconomic model for short-term forecasting. The short-term forecasts are published three times a year and are referred to as the "economic budget", as they are used by the federal government to set up its budget and to perform budgetary control exercises. The objective of this working paper is not to provide a complete description of the model, but to focus on the specification and estimation results of the behavioural equations.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-14 (en),
This study was commissioned by the Central Economic Council (CEC), and more particularly by the Special Advisory Commission ‘Construction’. It presents the sectoral results of a report that was produced in 2011 by the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. The federal government had asked both institutions to conduct a comprehensive study of a fiscal reform aiming at encouraging employment and supporting business competitiveness. As requested by the CEC, we comment here in detail the impact of a VAT increase without additional measures, on the one hand, and the impact of a VAT increase with transitional neutralization of the effect of that increase on the indexation. As regards the other measures examined, tables of results are annexed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-14 (fr),
Privatization, internal market, interconnections, greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy targets… is it possible to reconcile these themes? And if so, will our lights stay on? This is a major concern of a number of players in the energy field, especially the Secretary of State for Energy since he is responsible for guaranteeing the security of supply. In times of increased electricity production by variable energy sources and of distorted investment signals, guaranteeing security of supply is not evident, since the absence of investments in sufficient reserve capacity and – worst case scenario – inadequacy of generation capacity may lead to soaring societal costs. This Working Paper focuses on the specific event that, in spite of all initiatives and mechanisms in place, things go wrong: a national black-out paralyzing the entire Belgian economy for 1 hour and its price tag are analysed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-14 (nl),
This working paper describes main evolutions in household expenditure for transport in Belgium. Results are based on data from national accounts (National Accounts Institute, Eurostat) as well as data from Household budget surveys (Statistics Belgium).
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-14 (fr),
The state reform was elaborated at a moment when large fiscal consolidation measures were required to restore the long-term sustainability of Belgian public finances. The 2011 institutional agreement provided that the federated entities contribute, through the reform, to the fiscal consolidation. That contribution can be justified by the fact that the reform, by reducing the budgetary size of the federal level, decreases the federal level’s room for manoeuvre and its capacity to resolve on its own the sustainability issue. The magnitude of the contribution necessary to prevent the sustainability challenge from deteriorating is assessed and compared to the redistribution of the public deficit as organized by the reform. The assessment is made in a constant policy scenario and for different assumptions about the reform's life span. This study shows that the transfer of fiscal burden to the federated entities is, a priori, sufficient not to aggravate the sustainability problem considering the reduced size of the federal level’s budget. The federated entities have gained scale and powers but will have to contribute substantially to the efforts to restore fiscal sustainability.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-14 (fr),
Over the last couple of decades, there has been a large scale reorganisation of manufacturing production processes within global value chains. This has been achieved through fragmentation and offshoring. Fostered by the fall in coordination costs due to information and communication technology developments, offshoring implies that firms increasingly source intermediates from abroad. In developed economies, this has raised fears of massive job losses. Most academic work, in contrast, fails to find evidence that offshoring contributes to lowering employment.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-13 (en),
This Working Paper studies the financial and social sustainability of the Belgian social protection system. The results of this publication were presented at the 20st Congrès des économistes belges de langue française and published in the conference proceedings. Assuming no policy changes and against the background of population ageing, the long-term public finance projections highlight an important budgetary challenge. In that framework, this paper examines a number of pathways based on the three pillars of the European strategy as determined during the 2001 Stockholm summit. The budgetary strategy (pillar 1) of the Belgian stability programme in itself does not guarantee the long-term sustainability of public finance and should, therefore, be completed by reforms in support of economic growth (through employment or productivity, pillar 2) or reforms of the pension schemes (as part of pillar 3). The social consequences of the reforms which alter the generosity of the pension schemes should not be overlooked.
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-13 (fr),
This working paper describes TransAccount, an accounting model created at the FPB to build sustainable development scenarios, in particular their climate and energy segment, using a backcasting approach. To construct a scenario with TransAccount, the long term objectives and hypotheses of a global sustainable development scenario (for example Pyramid or Mosaic, scenarios published in the Belgian 4th Federal Report on Sustainable Development) have to be translated into quantitative objectives and hypotheses on technologies and on consumption and production patterns. The constructed scenarios highlight the changes needed in technology and in consumption and production patterns to meet the challenges of a sustainable development.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-13 (fr), (nl),
This Working Paper is aimed at describing the current version of Federal Planning Bureau’s medium-term macrosectoral model, named HERMES. This model is used to produce on a regular basis medium-term outlooks for the Belgian economy. In addition to the main macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, private consumption, external trade, investments,…), those outlooks also concern labour market aggregates, detailed public finances, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The HERMES model is also used to compute the impact of policy measures and external shocks on the Belgian economy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-13 (en),
Over the last couple of decades, trade liberalisation has progressed and environmental regulations have become more stringent, in particular regarding emissions of air pollution. This has raised the fear in developed countries that emission-intensive activities are increasingly carried out abroad. This paper develops an approach for testing whether emission-intensive industries have greater shares of imported intermediate materials. The test is applied to the Belgian manufacturing sector for the years 1995-2007. Emissions of three types of air pollutants are analysed: greenhouse gases, acidifying gases and tropospheric precursor gases. The results provide evidence that industries with a high intensity in acidifying gas emissions (SO2, NOX and NH3) tend to import a greater share of intermediate materials. This is likely to be linked to the stricter enforcement of regulations for air quality, which act upon acidifying gases. There is no such evidence in the results for emissions of tropospheric precursor gases and in particular of greenhouse gases. Regarding the latter, despite stringent regulations, enforcement appears to be less strict.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-13 (en),
The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs : the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. By means of this technique the share of energy in the (cumulated) cost structure of the industries and components of final demand is examined.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-13 (nl),
The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs: the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. By means of this technique is examined which contribution to GDP each component of final demand generates.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-13 (mix),
The input-output table of 2005 has been, together with new versions of the tables for 1995 and 2005, subjected to a traditional input-output analysis by means of the cumulated costs : the analysis of value added and intermediate imports directly and indirectly caused in the whole economy by the deliveries of one industry to final demand. Two tendencies are observed: an increase of intermediate imports in the cost structures (1995-2000) and a de-industrialization (2000-2005). But a few particularities are also discovered.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-13 (nl),
This Working paper presents the output, income and employment multipliers of the final demand in Belgium over the period 1995-2005. It exploits a consistent time series of input-output tables at constant prices for the years 1995, 2000 and 2005, which allows, for the first time in Belgium, to study the evolution of final demand multipliers without methodological break and without price effects.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-13 (fr),
In this working paper, the employment effect triggered by a transition towards an all renewable energy system in Belgium by 2050 is scrutinized. The job impact is estimated up until the year 2030. Using a labour intensity methodology, net job gains are to be expected in each renewable trajectory for any given year. A distinction is made between construction, installation and manufacturing (CIM) and operations, maintenance and fuel processing (O&M) jobs, with the maximum amount of CIM jobs created over the reference scenario exceeding the amount of O&M jobs. This points to the fact that renewable energy sources tend to have a higher construction and installation component in employment than fossil fuels. These installation jobs, along with numerous other job types (e.g. monitoring, planning, certifying), are bound to be and remain domestic. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of applying a decreasing employment multiplier over time is modeled, accompanied by an enumeration of arguments pro and contra using this type of multiplier. All through the paper, a number of reflections are brought to the fore that may nuance the obtained figures and effects. In order for the jobs to materialize, targeted educations, preferably in close collaboration with industry, technical schooling and interest in science are crucial. Enabling policies and measures within a solid, transparent policy framework should accompany the whole process. In this regard, some policy domains and actions are described that could prove useful in tapping the vast job potential.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-13 (en),
The analysis presented in this Working Paper is based on the scenarios of the draft Prospective Study for Electricity (PSE2) elaborated by the Directorate General for Energy of the FPS Economy, S.M.E.s, Self-employed and Energy in collaboration with the Federal Planning Bureau. The question examined in this analysis is whether the total generation capacity calculated in the PSE2 is compatible with the results of an adequacy assessment following ENTSO-E’s methodology (ENTSO-E is the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity).
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-13 (fr),
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