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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
A consensus quickly emerged among national and international organizations, based on past experiences, that the financial crisis that erupted in 2008 would have a long-lasting impact on the level of output. An initial quantification of the potential output loss imputable to the crisis for Belgium was presented in WP 10-09. This Working Paper provides an update of this analysis and examines through the successive revisions of projections made by the Federal Planning Bureau how the perception of the crisis has evolved over the last two years and what its implications are for the medium run. The shortfall in potential output is now estimated to be less than 3 %, close to the area-wide loss estimated for the OECD-countries.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-11 (en),
In this Working Paper the impact of potential determinants of total factor productivity, i.e. the part of output that cannot be explained by the quantity of production factors, is estimated for Belgium using industry-level data for the period 1988-2007.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-11 (en),
In the national accounts labour inputs are collected by industry. Homogenising means transforming labour inputs by industry into labour inputs by product. This homogenisation is done using mathematical techniques. The paper compares the results for two wellknown techniques (product technology and industry technology) and discusses the effects of homogenisation on Belgian data for the years 2000 and 2005. Labour inputs are detailed by gender and education level. An additional distinction is made between employees and self-employed. The paper proposes a solution for the negatives problem that arises when applying the product technology model in the case of self-employed workers. It also assesses the plausibility of results by showing the effects of homogenising on wage costs and value added per head as well as on the ranking of industries by education level. The product and the industry technology model yield significantly different results, most particularly for the employment use of wholesale and retail trade. The results of the product technology model are judged to be most plausible.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-11 (en),
Offshoring is generally believed to be productivity-enhancing and this belief is underpinned by economic theory. This article contributes to the growing literature that tests empirically whether offshoring does indeed help to improve productivity. Estimating the impact of materials and business services offshoring on productivity growth with industry-level data for Belgium over the period 1995-2004, we investigate this issue separately for manufacturing and market services. The results show that there is no productivity effect of materials offshoring, while business services offshoring leads to productivity gains especially in manufacturing. In addition, we look at the possibility of rent spillovers from offshoring. Productivity gains from offshoring in one industry may feed through to other industries that purchase its output for intermediate use if, due to offshoring, the user value exceeds the price of the output. The lack of evidence of such rent spillovers from either materials or business services offshoring in the data leads us to conclude that firms manage to internalise all efficiency gains from offshoring.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-11 (en),
One of the main sections in the current draft of the 2011-2012 Interprofessional Agreement concerns the welfare adjustment of social benefits. This draft results from a long process and fits in with the law concerning the Solidarity Pact between the Generations, which established a structural mechanism at the end of 2005, linking social benefits to welfare evolution. This working paper ‘Welfare adjustment of social benefits’ describes the first stage of that process: estimating the disposable financial means for the welfare adjustment of social benefits for the period 2011-2012, to which the Federal Planning Bureau contributed. In the employees scheme these means amount to 233.8 million in 2011 and to 497.9 million in 2012, of which the draft of the Interprofessional Agreement proposes to utilize merely 60%. Furthermore, this paper offers an overview of Belgian social policy by portraying its main turning points on the one hand and analysing the evolution of the average amounts of the main social benefits since 1980 on the other. The outcome is marked with contrast: over the period 1980-2009 the relative standard of living globally improved for pensioners, as opposed to the unemployed and the disabled.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-11 (mix),
This study aims to analyse the effects of the decentralization level of collective wage bargaining on the wage level and the wage dispersion in Belgium. For this purpose, we have constructed a composite indicator of collective bargaining decentralization, based on variables that determine collective bargaining. Our results indicate the presence of a significant wage bonus and wider wage disparity in industries where collective bargaining is decentralized. Furthermore, we compare these results with those that use as an indicator of bargaining decentralization, the presence of collective agreements at company level, a commonly used indicator in the literature. We notice that this latter indicator seems to underestimate the degree of bargaining decentralization and thus also its effects on the wage structure. One can explains this result by the fact that in Belgium, besides firm collective agreements, the bargaining system also provides mechanisms that enable firms to distance themselves from collective agreements set at industry level.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-11 (fr),
This Working Paper gives an overall picture of the horeca industry in Belgium. The study focuses in particular on aspects of business demography, the importance of the sector for the Belgian economy, its development since the mid-nineties and the financial health of horeca companies. Since the provision of horeca services is a very labour-intensive activity, special attention is paid to employment features.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-11 (mix),
This study aims to analyse the impact of two transport pricing policies using the PLANET model. The transport policies are (1) a harmonisation of excise duties on petrol and diesel and (2) road pricing for heavy goods vehicles in accordance with the EU proposal for the Eurovignette III directive. The effects studied concern the consequences for the transport activity for persons and goods, the environmental impact and the impact on social welfare. For both policy types, the impact on the public budget is neutralized through general taxation or labour taxation.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-11 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 22-10 (mix),
This paper shows the evolution of production, domestic demand and imports and exports of alcoholic beverages between 1995 and 2009. These variables are given for beer, malt and distilled and non-distilled alcoholic beverages as well as some non-alcoholic beverages. The paper shows the evolution of production, value added, investment, employment and wage costs for the alcoholic beverage producing industry and breaks down employment in breweries by type. For the years 1995 and 2005, the study estimates and compares the GDP contribution and employment generation of the production and distribution of alcoholic beverages in Belgium. These estimates are based on the input-output tables for both years.
Working Papers - Working Paper 21-10 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 23-10 (fr), (nl),
In this working paper the evolution of expenditures for research and development (R&D) in Belgium, in the period 1995-2007, is compared to the evolution in ten other EU countries. R&D expenditures by companies established in Belgium evolved quite favourably up to 2001 but subsequently not only did R&D intensity in Belgium decrease but the position relative to other countries deteriorated as well. This evolution seems to be due mainly to a decline in the share of a significant number of industries in Belgium in the overall R&D expenditures of the group of countries considered, and less the result of the type of industries in which Belgian companies have specialized.
Working Papers - Working Paper 20-10 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 19-10 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 18-10 (fr),
The Federal Planning Bureau took part, in collaboration with the German institute diw Berlin, in a technical assistance project aimed at developing different modelling approaches for the economy of Lesotho, a small country landlocked within the territory of South Africa. This paper summarises the major characteristics of the macro-econometric model that was elaborated in the context of this project. The modelling strategy relies on its complementarities and interactions with the so-called ‘Financial Programming’, implemented by other partners of the project team. In addition, the paper presents a baseline up to the fiscal year 2012/2013 as well as an alternative scenario in which public expenditures are reduced in response to the expected decrease in customs receipts.
Working Papers - Working Paper 17-10 (en),
This Working Paper describes the methodological changes in the Modal and Time Choice module of the PLANET model, further to the endogenisation of short see shipping for international transport and the splitting of the Bus-Tram-Metro aggregate into three distinct transport modes.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-10 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-10 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-10 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-10 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-10 (fr),
The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn’t until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration.
This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-10 (en),
This working paper describes the second version of MIDAS (an acronym for ‘Microsimulation for the Development of Adequacy and Sustainability’), a dynamic population model with dynamic cross-sectional ageing. This model simulates the life spans of individuals in the base dataset, including with their interactions, for the years between 2003 and 2060. It enables to produce, on that period, adequacy assessment of pensions in Belgium that is coherent with the baseline budgetary projections of the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing realized by the Federal Planning Bureau’s semi-aggregated MALTESE model. Indeed, MIDAS aligns its socio-economic and demographic projections and its macro-economic assumptions on the 2009 report of the Study Committee for Ageing. The adequacy of pensions is analysed through the replacement ratio, inequality measures among pensioners and poverty risk indicators of the elderly.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-10 (en),
The compliance costs of private taxpayers are not only affected by the tax law itself but also by its implementation through the tax authorities. In the following paper we analyze the effect of administrative actions on the compliance costs of private businesses. We demonstrate in a theoretical model that compliance costs may partially be interpreted as externalities of authority behavior. As a result we expect a "shifting" of administrative cost burdens from the tax administration to private taxpayers, what implies an economically inefficient outcome. Based on Belgian survey data, we find empirical evidence for the elucidated relationship. We give an quantitative estimate for the accordant effects and demonstrate, which activities of the administration are the most important cost drivers. Furthermore, we find empirical support that the effect of administrative issues is independent from the impact of the tax law itself.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-10 (en),
This report describes the organization of the Belgian long-term care system. It can be characterized as a mixed system with extensive public care provision and substantial support from informal care mainly within the family. While the current volume and quality of services appears to be adequate, the future increase in the number of dependent elderly persons over the next two decades as a result of demographic ageing can be expected to become a serious challenge, both in terms of required formal and informal care capacity and financially.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-10 (en),
This study discusses the possible effects of the Football World Cup in 2018 on economic expenditures. These expenditures mainly concern investments in stadiums and tourist spending by visitors. However, visiting teams, the media and organisational and security spending also generate effects. Total expenditure is estimated at €1.15 billion, spread over an eight - year period, with a large confidence interval. The effects of those expenditures on economic activity were calculated using two economic models: an input - output model and the macroeconomic model, HERMES . The effect on GDP should amount to approximately 0.13% in 2018. Employment should increase by roughly 450 to 750 jobs during the run - up to the tournament and by an equivalent of 4 000 to 8 000 man - years in the course of the tournament itself.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-10 (en), (mix),
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