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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
This paper estimates the Armington elasticity for the Belgian economy for different levels of (dis)aggregation. At a highly disaggregated level covering about 4,500 HS products, the estimated value of the elasticity ranges from 1.12 to 70.69. Across CPA product groups, the value of the elasticity ranges from 2.40 to 16.63. The corresponding aggregate elasticity ranges from 1.98 to 2.48.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-24 (en),
The "work bonus" measure is designed to stimulate labour supply and fight employment traps. Our evaluation shows that the work bonus has a non-negligible positive effect on retention. On the other hand, the measure has no effect on the evolution of the number of hours of work and slows the growth of gross wages.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-24 (fr), (nl),
The Flemish Region in Belgium reformed its registration tax for passenger cars and its annual road tax in 2012 and 2016 respectively. We find that those reforms have caused an accelerated, but small, decrease in the CO2 emission factors of new cars sold in Flanders.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-24 (en), (nl),
This publication presents the quantitative and qualitative results of the survey on administrative burden for enterprises and self-employed persons in Belgium in 2022.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-24 (fr), (nl),
In the context of the election programme costing exercise, the Federal Planning Bureau is anticipating proposals from political parties for the introduction of a top wealth tax. The purpose of this document is to explain the estimation method for its budgetary impulse. To do so, we use data from the Belgian National Bank's Household Financial Behaviour Survey. We develop the calculation method for estimating revenues with or without the potential behavioural responses of taxpayers. To include potential behavioural responses, we investigate two approaches, namely the bunching method and the inclusion of net wealth elasticities estimated abroad. Based on the results, we will preserve only the second method for the DC2024 costing. Furthermore, this paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic effects of the top wealth tax - literature relevant to understand the inclusion of the tax in the HERMES and QUEST models.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_08 (fr), (nl),
This paper gives a non-technical description of the PLANET and CASMO models. The main results of the models are presented using the reference scenario for the costing exercise. Several policy scenarios and their results are also presented, for illustration purposes.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_07 (fr), (nl),
The Artelys Crystal Super Grid model, developed by the French company Artelys, focuses on the electricity sector. Working with a high temporal resolution, it allows to evaluate the impact of measures affecting the production park, via several indicators. The latter notably relate to the security of supply, the cost of electricity, and the sustainability of the system, via the greenhouse gas emissions.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_06 (fr), (nl),
As part of the 2024 costing of electoral platforms, the QUEST III R&D dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model will be used to simulate the long-term effects of structural and (para-)fiscal measures proposed by the political parties. This paper summarises the characteristics of the model, presents its structure and the main transmission mechanisms and constraints. The functioning of the model is then illustrated through five stylised structural and (para-)fiscal reforms.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_05 (fr), (nl),
The Federal Planning Bureau's econometric model HERMES will be used to calculate the macroeconomic and budgetary impact of each political party's set of priority measures over the next legislature. This working paper summarises the characteristics of the model and describes its structure and main transmission mechanisms. It then illustrates the functioning of the model using several economic policy variants. Finally, this working paper describes the procedure for constructing the reference scenario and presents the main results of the June 2023 economic outlook. Those forecasts constitute the prefiguration of the reference scenario which will be published in February 2024, covering the period 2024-2029.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_04 (fr), (nl),
In the framework of the election costing exercise the impact on the distribution of disposable income is measured for a number of measures proposed by political parties. Administrative micro-data are used for this exercise. This approach allows that the impact of the measures studied is reported at the level of individual or household characteristics. The policy measures whose impact on the distribution of disposable income is calculated are measures situated within the domain of social security and social assistance, supplemented by the regulations on family allowances, the contribution rules applied to these benefits and the rules on personal income tax. The tool used for these calculations is the microsimulation model EXPEDITION. The present paper describes the main features of the EXPEDITION model and illustrates its operation on the basis of two simulations.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_03 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_02 (fr), (nl),
As part of the election budgetary costings and impact assessment, the PROMES projection model is used to calculate the fiscal impulse of policy measures within the public health domain. This Working Paper outlines the characteristics, structure and operation of the model. We illustrate the simulation possibilities of the model using the base case and some alternative scenarios.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_01 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-23 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
Suburbanisation is a well-established phenomenon in the developments of Western societies. It carries the risk of increasing transport demand, in the periphery and towards urban centres, going against sustainability objectives. This work sheds light on the link between suburbanisation and transport demand. Two demographic development scenarios are considered, framing the reference scenario of the April 2022 Transport Demand Outlook. Their effect on transport demand is analysed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-23 (fr),
We present a total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis per market segment and powertrain of new cars sold in Belgium. We differentiate our results between cars sold to private households and company cars. Even though the median TCO of electric cars is lower than the median TCO of conventional powertrains in several market segments, there is a significant overlap in the TCOs of different powertrains in each market segment. It is therefore important to consider the whole distribution of the TCO.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-23 (en), (nl),
For the projection of social sustainability indicators, the Federal Planning Bureau uses the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS, which has recently undergone a major revision. In this working paper we report a projection up to 2070 of poverty risks and income inequality among the elderly, pensioners and the population under 65 years, in a scenario with current pension policies and projected demographic and socio-economic evolutions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-23 (nl),
On 1 October 2021, the government approved a new five-year Federal Plan for Sustainable Development. This plan is at the heart of federal sustainable development policy and this Working Paper describes the methodology for monitoring its implementation. The results are also presented here for the first time, and this exercise will be repeated every year from this spring onwards. It shows that in just one year, the public services have already reported on the implementation of more than 90% of the measures and that only 30% of the measures are not (yet) in an implementation phase.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-23 (fr), (nl),
MIDAS, the dynamic microsimulation model that focuses on the social sustainability of pensions, has undergone a major revision in recent years to improve the validity of the projections. This Working Paper not only reports on this revision, but also describes some important new modules.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-23 (nl), (nl),
In international agreements, countries are considered responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions linked to their production activities. The carbon footprint provides an alternative assessment of this responsibility by attributing emissions to the country where the goods and services are consumed. This study presents the production-based CO2 emissions and the carbon footprint of the three Belgian regions for the year 2015. The production-based CO2 emissions are derived from the regional air emission accounts developed for this study, while the regional carbon footprints are calculated based on an input-output model and input-output data that include CO2 emissions. According to the results, the carbon footprint exceeds production-based emissions for all three regions. This implies that their contribution to global CO2 emissions is larger from a consumption perspective than from a production perspective.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-23 (fr), (nl),
In Belgium, the Law on Fiscal and Social Greening of Mobility of 25 November 2021 eliminates corporate tax deductibility for all company cars except those with zero CO2 emissions. The main effect of the tax reform is an accelerated electrification of the company car fleet and an accelerated decline in CO2 emissions. Compared to the no-reform scenario, the reform leads to an increase in net tax revenues of about 1 billion euro on an annual basis.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-22 (en), (nl),
A macro-economic analysis of the activity of multinational groups is of particular interest for economic policy in a country like Belgium with a longstanding tradition of openness to foreign investment. This working paper combines a database of enterprise groups that are active in Belgium with industry-level data from the national accounts to show that multinational groups play an important role in the Belgian economy. Together, foreign affiliates and firms that are part of a Belgian multinational group account for more than 40% of GDP, 25% of total employment and 75% of exports.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-22 (fr),
In the context of the significant increase in the number of beneficiaries of the health and disability insurance observed over the last 20 years in Belgium, we seek to develop an explanatory model for work incapacity and disability. On the basis of SILC data, we attempt to identify and prioritise the effects of different factors that may influence the probability of employees' transitions between socio-economic statutes, and in particular to and from primary incapacity and disability.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-22 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-22 (fr), (nl),
This Paper describes how the multiregional bottom-up HERMREG model works, using five (regional or federal) economic policy variants and a world demand shock.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-22 (fr), (nl),
This Working Paper describes the main characteristics of the multiregional bottom-up model, named HERMREG. This model is used by the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) and its three regional partners in the HERMREG project (IBSA-BISA, IWEPS, Statistiek Vlaanderen) to analyse the short and medium-term impact of economic policies in the three Belgian regions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-22 (fr), (nl),
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