External event : Potential Growth and Fiscal Challenges 

In the morning, the notion ‘potential growth’ and the different available estimations will be discussed. In the afternoon, the issue of the long-term sustainability of public finances within the context of recovery from the crisis and the possible answers of the economic policy will be treated. Both international and Belgian dimensions will be discussed.

The financial crisis has suddenly and deeply affected economic growth. How will the growth evolve during the coming years? Experts broach this question by trying to estimate the current and future production capacity of the economy and predict at what time this production capacity can fully be used again.

The future evolution of public finances will be determined in particular by the evolution of the economic growth, which will be in turn influenced by the budgetary policy. Even before the outbreak of the crisis, the long-term sustainability of public finances was a main concern, given the expected impact of ageing. To what extent has the economic slowdown further deteriorated the sustainability of public finances? In what way can economic policy help to take up the follows challenges: the winding down of stimulus efforts, the necessary budgetary consolidation and the budgetary cost of ageing?

All those questions will be treated by means of analyses of the European Commission, the OECD and the FPB itself.

Programme

Welcome address,
Henri Bogaert, Federal Planning Bureau

Potential growth

Short and long run impact of the financial crisis on potential output,
Kieran Mc Morrow, European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs

Potential output after the crisis,
Philip Bagnoli, OECD, Economics Department

Uncertainty surrounding output gap estimates - The Belgian case,
Igor Lebrun, Federal Planning Bureau

Fiscal challenges

Sustainable public finances in a turbulent EU economy,
Lucio PENCH, Head of Unit, Fiscal policies in the euro area and the EU , European Commission, DG ECFIN

Challenges in restoring fiscal sustainability,
Jorgen Elmeskov, OECD, Economics Department

Challenges and strategies for Belgian public finances,
Henri Bogaert, Federal Planning Bureau