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To promote transparency and provide information, the Federal Planning Bureau regularly publishes the methods and results of its works. The publications are organised in different series, such as Outlooks, Working Papers and Planning Papers. Some reports can be consulted here, along with the Short Term Update newsletters that were published until 2015. You can search our publications by theme, publication type, author and year.
This paper gives a non-technical description of the PLANET and CASMO models. The main results of the models are presented using the reference scenario for the costing exercise. Several policy scenarios and their results are also presented, for illustration purposes.
Working Papers - DC2024_WP_07 (fr), (nl),
This report uses the PLANET model to examine the impact of an alternative train offer on passenger transport demand by 2040. For this purpose, the results of several alternative scenarios are compared with the reference scenario of the transport outlook published in April 2022.
Reports - Rep_12889 (nl),
The aim of this report is to study the effects on freight transport demand of the abolition of the refund of excise duties on professional diesel, using the PLANET model. The analysis compares the results published in April 2022 in the Outlook for transport demand in Belgium with a variant counting on the abolition of this regime for trucks from 2025 (t+1 in the model).
Reports - REP_PLANET_12888 (fr),
Articles - Article 017 (fr), (nl),
Suburbanisation is a well-established phenomenon in the developments of Western societies. It carries the risk of increasing transport demand, in the periphery and towards urban centres, going against sustainability objectives. This work sheds light on the link between suburbanisation and transport demand. Two demographic development scenarios are considered, framing the reference scenario of the April 2022 Transport Demand Outlook. Their effect on transport demand is analysed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-23 (fr),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_22 (fr), (nl),
Reports - REP_12622 (fr), (nl),
While automated car driving may bring important benefits in terms of traffic safety, we should not be blind to other effects: full automation is likely to lead to increases in car traffic, mostly for transport that is not related to commuting. This is likely lead to further reductions in road speed in the areas that already suffer the most from the congestion.
Articles - Article 009 (en), (fr), (nl),
A policy mix of “stick” measures (generalised distance based road charge) and “carrot” measures (supporting carpooling) could induce an increase in the occupation rate of cars in Belgium from 1.44 to 1.50. This relatively modest increase can be explained by the relatively small share of trips for which an increase in the occupation rate is a realistic option, and by the inconveniences linked to the organisation of carpooling. Nevertheless, this policy mix can induce a notable improvement in the traffic situation during the peak periods in the regions that currently suffer the most from congestion.
Articles - Article 006
The aim of this study is to take a step back about teleworking as a tool to tackle mobility issues. Beyond the renewed interest in the public debate from which teleworking benefits, and its strong emphasis since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the aim here is to use reliable sources and proven models to identify the relationship between increased teleworking and decreased transport demand. To this end, the PLANET model of the Federal Planning Bureau has been adapted to explicitly take into account changes in this practice in its long-term projections.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-20 (fr),
This report quantifies the marginal external cost of transport (congestion costs and environmental costs) using the Federal Planning Bureau’s PLANET model and compares this to the transport taxes levied. These indicators were not covered in the ‘Projections of transport demand in Belgium by 2040’, published in 2019 by the Federal Planning Bureau and the FPS Mobility and Transport. In that sense this report supplements this publication.
Reports - REP 12117 (nl),
PLANET is a model developed by the Belgian Federal PLANning Bureau that models the relationship between Economy and Transport. Its aim is to produce: (i) medium- and long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium, both for passenger and freight transport; (ii) simulations of the effects of transport policy measures; (iii) cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. This methodological report describes the main features of the PLANET model, and more specifically, the version 4.0 used for the transport outlook published in January 2019.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-20 (en),
We compare the TCO of fully electric cars (BEV) with those of diesel and gasoline cars. In the size class “small”, BEV only have a lower TCO for an expected lifetime that exceeds most estimates of the planning horizon people use when purchasing cars. In the size class “medium”, BEVs have a lower TCO than conventional cars if their expected lifetime mileage is high enough. “Big” electric cars have higher TCO than their conventional counterparts for any reasonable assumption regarding their use profiles.
Reports - REP_VHSTCOBEV_12036 (en),
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces, every three years, long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise is the fourth of its kind so far. It aims to make a projection of no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing elements on which transport policy should be based to be identified and the impact of transport policy measures to be studied.
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_19 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
The new Belgian CAr Stock MOdel, which is linked to the national transport demand model PLANET, is structured as follows: (a) The total desired car stock in each future year is a function of the country’s population and GDP per capita. (b) The probability that a car is scrapped is modelled as a function of its age and accumulated mileage. The desired car stock is then confronted with the remaining car stock to determine total car purchases. (c) Total sales are allocated to individual emission classes, using the parameter values of a Stated Preference discrete choice model. The model is then calibrated in order to reflect the current market and policy context in Belgium (d) The results are mapped into an inventory that is aggregated according to the EURO emission class. (e) In order to represent that the non-price barriers to electrified cars will decrease over time, we have implemented an alternative approach where the perceived acquisition costs decrease over time. Alternatively, this approach can be used to explore what would be the required decrease in subjective costs to reach a given future market share.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-19 (en),
Transport models used for long-term projections should reflect the impact of shared, automated and electric mobility modes. The objective of the current paper is to derive lessons from the existing literature on vehicle ownership modelling to find options to further improve the PLANET model, which is used for projections of transport demand in Belgium.
PLANET is already well equipped to represent the impacts of shared and automated cars on the opportunity cost of travel time, the load factors and the annual mileage of cars.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-17 (en),
Within the framework of a cooperation agreement between the Federal Planning Bureau and the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, the Federal Planning Bureau produces every three years long-term projections of transport demand in Belgium. This exercise, the third of its kind so far, is aimed at making a projection with no change in policy, indicating general long-term trends and allowing to identify elements on which transport policy should be based and to study the impact of transport policy measures.
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_15 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
This paper seeks to analyze the long term effects on traffic, environmental quality and public finance of the planned reform of fuel excise duties in Belgium. In the framework of a large scale tax reform, the Belgian federal government will implement an equalization of diesel and petrol excise rates over the 2016-2018 period.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-15 (en),
Speeches & presentations - SP120918_01 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl), (nl),
Forecasts & Outlook - FORTRANSP_01 (fr), (nl),
This study aims to analyse the impact of two transport pricing policies using the PLANET model. The transport policies are (1) a harmonisation of excise duties on petrol and diesel and (2) road pricing for heavy goods vehicles in accordance with the EU proposal for the Eurovignette III directive. The effects studied concern the consequences for the transport activity for persons and goods, the environmental impact and the impact on social welfare. For both policy types, the impact on the public budget is neutralized through general taxation or labour taxation.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-11 (fr),
This Working Paper describes the methodological changes in the Modal and Time Choice module of the PLANET model, further to the endogenisation of short see shipping for international transport and the splitting of the Bus-Tram-Metro aggregate into three distinct transport modes.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-10 (en),
The vehicle stock module calculates the size and composition of the car stock. Its output is a full description of the car stock in every year, by vehicle type, age and (emission) technology of the vehicle. The vehicle stock is represented in the detail needed to compute transport emissions. The integration of the car stock module in PLANET will allow to better capture the impact of changes in fixed and variable taxes levied on cars. Among these impacts, the effect on the environment is of particular interest.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-10 (en),
New measures need to be taken in order to reduce the negative impact of transport. This study presents various theoretical schemes for the introduction of road pricing in Belgium and analyses their impact on transport, the environment and welfare by using the PLANET model. The internalisation of external costs, while difficult to implement in the short term, improves welfare significantly. In order to improve welfare, a road tax system aimed at lorries exclusively should allow for a suitable differentiation according to the actual periods of transport. Extending the road pricing system so as to include vans has a positive effect on welfare and also avoids shifting part of the road freight to vans. Extending road pricing to all road motor vehicles (lorries, vans and individual cars) significantly improves welfare, road congestion and the average speed on the road network. On the other hand, it induces a very marked surge in the demand for rail and other public transport (buses, trams and metros), which would almost certainly exceed the capacity of existing infrastructures. Potential management problems of rail and other public transport such as buses, trams and metros could be avoided if the generalisation of the road pricing system to all road motor vehicles were combined with the withdrawal of subsidies for public transport.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-09 (fr),
Transport is a major source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and plays an important role in their evolution. Transport emissions are closely monitored and their future evolution is integrated into the FPB transport model, PLANET. The publication uses a decomposition analysis to compare the projected evolution of the emissions in the base scenario of the PLANET model to the base scenario of two other models and to put these in a historic perspective. The analysis focuses on Tank-to-Wheel emissions and is limited to three modes: road transport, railways and inland navigation.
Articles - Article 2009100604
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