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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Autres publications - Euren Spring Report (en),
During recent months it has become clear that the turning point in the business cycle has been passed both in the US and in the euro area. Attention has shifted since then to the question of how strong the recovery will be and what will be the forces driving it. A substantial improvement in the labour market situation is now the missing link to ensure a seamless transition from a more technical inventories-led upturn to a broader demand-led recovery and to avoid the risk of a double dip scenario, both in the US and in the euro area. As the labour market situation reacts to economic activity with a certain time lag, it is crucial that the business cycle upturn should remain sufficiently strong to persuade entrepreneurs to increase their staff.
According to the FPB’s leading indicator, the Belgian GDP cycle should only begin to climb in the second half of 2002. As a result, GDP should record an average annual increase this year which is almost identical to last year, i.e. 1.0%. Its composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. The full positive impact of the economic recovery will become visible in 2003, with an expected GDP growth rate of 3.0%. In April 2002, national consumer price inflation fell below 2% (yoy) and it should stay below that level on average in 2002 and 2003.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-02 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic outlook 2002-2007 (fr), (nl),
Autres publications - Report 01-02 (fr), (nl),
In this paper, we investigate how automatic fiscal stabilisers affect economic activity in the euro area. For this purpose we apply several shocks to the NIME-model, and we compare the adjustment path of the main macroeconomic variables under a regime that allows the automatic fiscal stabilisers to operate fully, with the results for a regime that tempers the working of the automatic fiscal stabilisers. We also compare the results for the euro area with results for the United States and Japan.
In the second section of this paper, we briefly describe the NIME model. In the third section, we present simulation results for various shocks under two different fiscal regimes.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-02 (en),
Autres publications - IT 01-2002 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-02 (nl),
Ce planning paper constitue une synthèse des travaux effectués en matière de comptabilité nationale environnementale au Bureau fédéral du Plan. Il a pu être rédigé grâce au co-financement des Services fédéraux des affaires scientifiques, techniques et culturelles dans le cadre de son Plan d’appui scientifique à une politique de développement durable.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 90 (fr), (nl),
La question de la soutenabilité financière à long terme des régimes légaux de pension fait irruption dans le débat socio-politique belge à la fin des années quatre-vingt. Les différentes politiques touchant aux pensions mises en oeuvre durant les périodes précédentes indiquent que cette préoccupation était auparavant soit absente, soit subordonnée à des impératifs de court-moyen terme perçus comme prioritaires.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 91 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2002 C (fr), (nl),
Cette note répond à une demande du ministre de l’ économie. Elle vise à fournir une estimation des effets de la faillite de la Sabena sa sur l’activité économique belge.
Pour rappel, la faillite de la Sabena sa est intervenue le 7 novembre 2001. La Sabena sa comptait à l’époque 7800 personnes et faisait partie avec Sabena Technics, dat, Sobelair et quelques autres filiales, du groupe Sabena qui au total, comptait plus de 12000 personnes. Après la faillite, s’est constitué un consortium d’investisseurs privés et publics chargé de récolter des fonds en vue de relancer une activité aérienne à partir de la dat.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-02 (fr), (nl),
After an exceptional year in 2000, world trade growth deteriorated sharply in 2001. The collapse of world trade can be explained by the synchronized slackening of the three main economic powers (United States, Japan, and the European Union). The attacks of 11 September and their economic and political impact have, of course, amplified the downturn. The end of destocking and the hesitant recovery, which, according to certain indicators, may be starting in the United States during the first semester of this year, should allow world trade to regain positive growth rates, although a stronger recovery should not be expected before the second half of 2002.
The Belgian economy was severely affected by the slowdown in world trade. On annual average, GDP should have grown by about 1.0% in 2001. In 2002 GDP should record an almost identical average annual increase, i.e. 0.9%. The composition and dynamics should, however, be quite different. After a first quarter marked by the impact of the bankruptcy of SABENA, real GDP should grow at positive qoq rates in a range between 0.5 and 1%. The economic upturn should only have a positive impact on employment by the end of the year. This year, consumer price inflation should fall below 2%. It seems that lower imported inflation is finally beginning to be passed on to the underlying inflation.
Our forecast is counting on a gradual recovery in world trade, which should regain its full dynamics by the end of the year. We assume that the positive impact on economic recovery will mainly be observed in 2003. A strong recovery earlier this year would of course have a positive impact on growth in Europe and in Belgium as long as it does not give rise to an increase in oil prices.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-02 (en),
This working paper brings together three analyses that were carried out by the Federal Planning Bureau at the request of the Secretary of State for Energy and Sustainable Development and the Minister for Consumer Affairs, Public Health and the Environment. It looks at the harmonisation (increase) in energy levies up to the average level in our neighbouring countries and the introduction of a co2 levy. In the case of the co2 levy we analyse both the situation whereby all energy products are taxed and the case where the levy is only applicable to road transport. All policy variants are intended to reduce co2 emissions in Belgium within the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The analyses presented in this working paper were finalized in September 2001.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-02 (en),
A la demande du Conseil des Ministres et en collaboration avec l’Agence pour la simplification administrative, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a estimé le poids des charges administratives tel que déclaré par les entreprises et les indépendants pour l’année 2000. Le coût total des charges administratives reprend l’ensemble des moyens mis en oeuvre par les entreprises et les indépendants pour se conformer aux dispositions administratives en matière de fiscalité, d’environnement et d’emploi. Il convient de souligner que les charges administratives non récurrentes, comme par exemple celles encourues lors du lancement d’une activité économique ou lors d’une action en justice, ne sont pas prises en considération.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 92 (fr), (nl),
Information and communication technology (ICT) has become a significant economic activity in most industrialized countries as well as an important engine of innovation and changes in the rest of the economy. It has been recognized as one of the key factors boosting productivity growth and hence business sector competitiveness. Various initiatives have been recently adopted at regional, national and European levels in order to meet quickly the new challenges of ICT use and diffusion in Europe. A growing number of indicators are now available in order to assess the position of each country or region in terms of ICT development and to guide policy decisions in that field. The aim of this report is to provide a clear and succinct view of the relative development of ICT in Belgium by analyzing both the production and the diffusion of ICT in our economy 1 and to highlight the main weaknesses and strengths of the Belgian economy in that area. Even if the sector has been recently characterised by stock markets ups and downs and numerous bankruptcies, production of ICT goods and services has contributed significantly during the nineties to the growth of economic activity and employment in some industrialised countries as for instance in Anglo-saxon and Scandinavian countries. Has Belgian economic activity benefited from the boom in the ICT sector to the same extent as other industrialised countries? What kind of development can be expected in the future? These are the main questions addressed in the part of the report devoted to the analysis of the Belgian ICT production sector.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-02 (en),
Working Papers - Abstracts Working Paper (en), (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-01 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-01 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-01 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-01 (nl),
During the past one and a half years, the world economy has been hit by a series of shocks, notably the large rise in oil prices, the abrupt slowing of growth in the United States (initiated by the bursting of the speculative bubble in the ICT sector) and the events of 11 September. This resulted in a synchronised slowdown in the three major economic regions (the United States, Japan and the European Union) and a pronounced downturn in world trade.
It is obvious that Belgium, being a ‘small open economy’, cannot escape the prevailing slowdown in the world economy. The forecasts for all components of final demand have therefore been revised downwards for both 2001 and 2002 as compared to our July projections. Under these circumstances GDP would not exceed a growth rate of 1.1% this year and 1.3% in real terms next year. These average annual growth rates are based on slightly negative growth figures (quarter-on-quarter) during the second half of this year, while positive and steadily increasing quarterly growth rates should be recorded in 2002 due to a recovery in exports.
Domestic demand should increase by only 1.1% both this year and next, while average growth over the last five years has amounted to 2.5%. Exports should suffer from slackening world demand in 2001, consequently growing by only 0.8%. In 2002 exports should accelerate and reach an average annual growth of 2.8%, which is much slower than in the second half of the 1990s.
The uncertainties surrounding these forecasts in the present political and economic situation should not be underestimated. The scenario on which the present forecasts are based assumes that the loss of consumer and business confidence will be of short duration, implying that the US economy will recover quickly next year. The consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September and the military response to those attacks may, however, have a more prolonged impact on investors’ and consumers’ confidence. As a final remark, it has to be underlined that the economic forecasts published in this STU were finalised before Sabena was declared bankrupt.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-01 (en),
After a period of rapid expansion during 1999 and the first half of 2000, a clear worldwide slowdown was recorded in the second half of 2000. Current forecasts are assuming that world trade will recover in the second half of 2001. In line with this international scenario (lower growth, higher inflation), economic growth in Belgium has been revised downwards to 2.4% (compared to 2.8% in the economic budget last February). GDP growth next year should reach 2.8%, driven by stronger growth in exports and domestic demand.
In addition to the impact of the recovery of international trade, activity in 2002 should be fuelled by various internal factors boosting private consumption, such as wage and employment increases, the indexation of wages and social benefits above consumer price growth and personal income tax reform.
Domestic employment should rise by around 40,000 persons in 2001 and 45,000 in 2002, leading to a new improvement in the employment rate. Nevertheless, the impact on unemployment will be smaller, given the forecast increase in the labour force.
Inflation should be significantly lower in 2002 than in 2001 (1.5% as against 2.4% for consumer prices), thanks to a small decrease in energy prices, the stabilization of the euro exchange rate and lower prices for food products. The impact on inflation of the conversion of prices into euro is uncertain and any changes, should mainly be seen in 2001.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-01 (en),
Ce planning paper s’adresse à un large public, tant aux décideurs, universitaires qu’aux forces vives de la société et à toute autre personne intéressée. Il a pour objet de permettre au lecteur de mieux appréhender la politique climatique, une matière complexe. Ce faisant, il s’efforce, d’une part, de démontrer l’importance des investissements dans une meilleure connaissance du sujet et, d’autre part, de contribuer à une meilleure prise de décision en la matière.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 89 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2002 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-01 (fr),
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