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Publications
Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-01 (nl),
Autres publications - Benchmarking (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-01 (en),
Belgian GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year. Even when taking into account a recovery in world trade during the last few months of 2001, growth in Belgian exports should ease back significantly on average this year, due to the deceleration in world economic growth and the appreciation of the euro. Domestic demand should, however, remain robust in 2001 (2.5%). Private consumption growth (2.5%) should almost equal the average for the last three years, while business investment should do even better. Employment growth should remain strong this year (1.1%), although lower than the exceptional figure seen last year (1.8%). The decrease in inflation seems to be slower than was expected earlier. The general government financing capacity should move from 0% in 2000 to 0.7% of GDP in 2001.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.7% during the period from 2002 to 2006.This favourable development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand. The role of exports should be more limited. Private consumption should be more dynamic during the period covered by the forecast than it was during the 1996-2000 period thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated in particular by an important fiscal reform). Gross fixed capital formation should also increase rapidly, reflecting the increase in business investment. Export growth, on the other hand, should not exceed 5.9% on average: the loss in export market share should be confirmed and the contribution to GDP growth from net exports is expected to decline.
The inflation rate should be kept below 2% in the medium term. Wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity are the main domestic factors behind this more moderate inflation.
Annual employment growth should be around 1% between 2002 and 2006, but a large proportion of this expansion should be absorbed by an increase in the labour force. The unemployment rate in the broad sense (including long-term older unemployed) should decline more modestly (from 12.9% of the labour force in 2000 to 11.3% in 2006) than the official unemployment rate (from 10% to 7.5%).
Assuming an unchanged policy, but taking into account the measures decided upon recently, the financing capacity of the public administrations should improve up to the equivalent of 1.3% of GDP in 2006. Given the ambitious budgetary targets of Belgium’s stability program for 2001-2005, this means that the remaining budgetary margins should be, at most, very limited.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-01 (en),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Outlook 2001-2006 (fr), (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2001 C (fr), (nl),
Belgian exports will be hit this year by the deceleration in world economic growth, which was already reflected by the net slowdown in world import demand at the end of last year. Even when taking into account the expected recovery in world trade from the second half of 2001 onwards, growth in Belgian export markets should significantly ease back. Moreover, the appreciation of the euro will reduce the price competitiveness of Belgian exports and would lead to loss of market share. As a result, the positive contribution towards real economic growth from external trade will decline.
Nevertheless, domestic demand should remain robust in 2001. Business investment should benefit from a rise in firms’ profitability due to the gain from the terms of trade (because of lower oil prices and the appreciation of the BEF). Private consumption will be sustained by substantial growth in household’s real disposable income as the expected deceleration in inflation will allow to regain part of the loss of purchasing power in 2000. Furthermore, households’ disposable income will also be supported by some personal tax cuts. Although the deterioration in the business cycle will lower the pace of employment growth, the higher labour-intensiveness, that has been observed during the last three years, will still give rise to a favorable employment outcome.
All in all, Belgian GDP is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year.
Taking into account the 2001 Budget and the macro-economic outlook presented above, and including the expected revenues from the UMTS licences (0.2% of GDP), the general government budget balance is expected to move from equilibrium in 2000 to a small surplus in 2001 (about 0.7% of GDP).
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-01 (en),
Information and communication technology (ict) has become a significant economic activity in most industrialized countries as well as an important engine of innovation and changes in the rest of the economy. It has been recognized as one of the key factors boosting productivity growth and hence business sector competitiveness. Various initiatives have been recently adopted at regional, national and European levels in order to meet quickly the new challenges of ict use and diffusion in Europe. A growing number of indicators are now available in order to assess the position of each country or region in terms of ict development and to guide policy decisions in that field. The aim of this report is to provide a clear and succinct view of the relative development of ict in Belgium by analyzing both the production and the diffusion of ict in our economy and to highlight the main weaknesses and strengths of the Belgian economy in that area.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-01 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-01 (fr),
Cette étude explore des scénarios énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2020 avec comme objectif principal d’identifier et de discuter les principales questions et incertitudes qui affecteront le système énergétique belge ces vingt prochaines années. Pour chacun de ces scénarios, l’évolution correspondante des émissions de co2 est calculée.
En conséquence, elle fournit des éléments d’information utiles pour l’élaboration du programme indicatif des moyens de production d’électricité et du plan indicatif d’approvisionnement en gaz naturel qui devront être élaborés prochainement dans le cadre des lois du 29 avril 1999 relatives à la libéralisation des marchés de l’électricité et du gaz. Elle permet aussi de mettre en perspective l’effort de réduction des émissions de co2 nécessaire pour satisfaire les objectifs de Kyoto et d’éclairer les possibilités de réduction des émissions dans les différents secteurs.
Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 88 (fr), (nl),
Autres publications - Relocation 2000 - Summary (en), (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-00 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-00 (en),
Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.8% this year - the highest growth rate since 1988 - and 3.2% next year. Exports and private consumption were very buoyant during the first half of 2000. However, both the private consumption cycle and the export cycle should have peaked by the middle of 2000 and should gradually move down towards their trend path in the second half of the current year. This should lead to a slowdown in GDP growth during the second half of 2000, although it will remain robust, at rates of about 3% yoy.
The overall economic environment should remain favourable next year. The growth of external demand should largely exceed the average seen during the last decade, despite a moderate slowdown in our main export markets. Belgian exporters should, as in 2000 and contrary to what has generally been observed in the last two decades, lose almost no market share, reflecting improved competitiveness due to the depreciation of the euro and subdued domestic costs. The 2001 Budget contains some personal tax cuts and supplementary social benefits which should support households’ disposable income, while the loss of purchasing power due to rising energy prices is not expected to be repeated. Households’ disposable income should also benefit from substantial growth in employment. The rise in employment seen since 1995 should indeed continue during the forecast period. This is supported by sustained growth in economic activity and government measures aimed at promoting employment. The expected increase in the participation rate should sustain the labour supply and help to limit pressures in the labour market.
The combined effect of persistently high oil prices and a weak euro resulted in an upward revision of inflation prospects for this and next year, which is now expected to be 2.5% in 2000 and 1.9% in 2001. It appears that import price increases have at last begun to be passed on to domestic consumer prices. It should be noted, however, that these “second round” effects are not, so far, spreading to wages.
Taking into account the 2001 Budget and the macro-economic outlook presented above, and disregarding the one-off revenues from the auctioning of UMTS licenses, the general government budget balance is expected to move from broad equilibrium in 2000 to a small surplus in 2001.
The underlying risks to our macro-economic forecasts are mainly linked to the international financial conditions that will prevail in the year 2001. Additionally, wage increases in Belgium exceeding wage developments in its main trading partners could harm Belgium’s competitive position.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-00 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-00 (en), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-00 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-00 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-00 (fr),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Forecasts 2001 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-00 (en),
The Belgian economy has entered a period of strong cyclical growth since activity accelerated strongly in the second half of last year. Benefiting from an important positive carry-over effect, the increase in GDP should be 3.8% this year. Next year economic growth should be 3.1%.
Despite two consecutive years of strong growth, pressure on the goods and labour market should remain limited. The sustained growth in business investment and a rise in the labour supply could raise potential growth in Belgium. In the special topic of this issue, it is shown that this increase in the labour supply should result from higher participation rates.
Moreover, the acceleration in the general consumer price index seen in recent months and the rise in our inflation forecast for the year 2000 are only marginally influenced by domestic cost components in general, and by wage costs in particular, but can principally be explained by the increase in import prices, especially oil prices, whose effect was strengthened by the fall in the effective euro exchange rate.
As in 2000, economic growth in 2001 will be broadly based. It will be stimulated by a positive contribution from foreign trade and a still vigorous domestic demand, despite a slowdown following the very dynamic expansion of domestic demand this year. Growth of private employment will hardly weaken in 2001. The improvement in employment during the 2000-2001 period will lead to a further increase in the employment rate. From 1995 to 2001, the employment rate should gain 3.4 percentage points in all.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-00 (en),
Autres publications - Relocation 2000 (nl),
Prévisions & perspectives - Economic Outlook 2000-2005 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-00 (fr),
Economic activity in Belgium increased strongly during the second half of last year thanks to the net improvement in export growth as well as sustained internal demand. On average, GDP growth reached 2.5% in 1999, confirming the scenario of a short-lived slowdown between mid-98 and mid-99.
The upward trend in nearly all demand components will result in a positive carry-over effect for the year 2000. Moreover, leading indicators are so far pointing towards a further improvement in economic growth in the first half of the current year, with growth stabilising at a high level in the third quarter. This year, Belgian GDP growth should reach 3.2%. Internal demand will be boosted by sustained growth in private consumption, thanks among other things to a high job creation rate (+1.4%), and also by a positive contribution from stockbuilding towards economic growth (+0.3%). The contribution of external trade (+0.4%) will be favoured by the dynamism of world trade and the improvement in price competitiveness. The public sector borrowing requirement should diminish and nearly reach equilibrium (-0.1% of GDP), thanks to the fall in interest payments and the increase in the primary surplus.
The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.6% per year during the 2001-2005 period, mostly supported by exports and business investment. The economic fundamentals of the euro area should be the main driving force behind those prospects: fiscal consolidation should not require new measures and the slightly accelerated pace of inflation (around 2% in the medium term) in Europe should not threaten price stability and the low level of real interest rates. Despite the further significant decrease of the unemployment rate in the euro area, acceleration in wage inflation should be limited.
Annual employment growth in Belgium should be around 0.8% between 2001 and 2005. The labour force will still increase in spite of unfavourable demographic developments (the baby-boom generation is entering the 55-60 age range), thanks to higher participation rates among females and over-50s. The acceleration of wage inflation in Belgium should be broadly in line with the average of our three main trading partners. The pace of growth in consumer prices should be around 1.5% on average between 2000 and 2005. On the basis of a “no change in policy” scenario, the general government financing capacity should become positive from 2001 onwards. Compared to the budgetary target set out in the 2000-2003 stability program (surplus of 0.2% GDP in 2003), “cumulative budgetary margins” will reach 2.2% GDP in 2005.
Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-00 (en),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
