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Publications

Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.

Documents (1092)

2000

  • STU 01-00 : Special Topic - Government participation in Belgian companies 28/02/2000

    The recovery in world economic growth in 1999 led to a strong acceleration in economic growth in Belgium during the second half of 1999. Faced with improved prospects, the manufacturing sector is expected to build up stocks again from the fourth quarter of 1999 onwards, after having strongly reduced their stocks during the recent economic slowdown (mid-1998 to mid-1999).

    Fixed capital formation in non-industrial sectors increased strongly in 1999, private consumption grew at a relatively sustained pace, and the contribution from external trade was positive. For 1999 as a whole, economic growth in Belgium reached 2.3%. The upward trend of all demand components in the course of 1999, if confirmed, will lead to a positive carry-over effect for the year 2000.

    Economic activity in Europe should accelerate in 2000, US economic growth should be sustained and the emerging economies should continue their recovery. Belgian export markets should then grow faster in 2000 than in 1999. Moreover, the depreciation of the euro during the 1999-2000 period and the new cuts in non-wage costs should boost the price competitiveness of the Belgian economy. For the first time for more than 10 years, Belgium should even slightly increase its market shares.

    The contribution of stockbuilding towards economic growth should be largely positive, the rate of investment by companies should rise again and household investment should recover. The growth in household disposable income should reach 2.3% in real terms in 2000 (1.4% in 1999), thanks to a new strong creation in employment, a slightly higher growth in real wages and an increase in capital income. Private consumption should rise by 2.1% leaving the savings rate quasi unchanged.

    All in all, Belgian GDP growth should reach 3.2% in 2000, thanks to dynamic domestic demand (2.9%) and a net contribution from exports (0.4%).

    Oil prices more than doubled between December 1998 and December 1999. Energy prices are not, however, expected to continue rising in 2000, while underlying inflation should accelerate somewhat in the course of the year. The consumption price index should increase by 1.5% in 2000 (compared with 1.1% in 1999) and the health index by 1.3%.

    Growth prospects for 2000 should allow a further reduction of the public deficit.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 01-00  Publication(en),

  • Les participations publiques dans le secteur marchand en Belgique 01/02/2000

    Depuis les années quatre-vingt, un grand nombre d’entreprises publiques ont été privatisées en Europe. Au Royaume-Uni, les premières privatisations ont été réalisées sous le gouvernement Thatcher. En France, après une vague de nationalisations qui a pris fin en 1982, les entreprises publiques ont progressivement été privatisées, sous le président Mitterand, durant la période de coalition dite de "cohabitation". En Belgique, un groupe de travail a été créé en 1986 avec pour mission d’étudier la rationalisation et la privatisation des entreprises publiques et mixtes. Les travaux de ce groupe ont débouché sur la vente ou la vente partielle des entreprises publiques suivantes: la Sabena, Belgacom, la sni et la cger. En Europe, les privatisations les plus récentes ont été réalisées après la chute du mur de Berlin en 1989. Dans l’ancienne république démocratique allemande, les entreprises d’Etat ont été privatisées par la Treuhandanstalt. Les autres pays du Comecon ont également suivi sur la voie des privatisations. En Italie, des privatisations de grande envergure sont réalisées depuis 1997. Ces privatisations étaient indispensables dans l’objectif de pouvoir participer à l’euro dès le 1er janvier 1999.

    Séries clôturées - Planning Paper 87  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

1999

  • STU 04-99 : Special Topic - The dioxin crisis: an applied input-output analysis 22/11/1999

    Since our July forecasts, a number of new developments inside and outside Belgium have occurred. Taking those elements into account, a rapid and tentative updating of our forecasts for 1999-2000 has been made.

    The first element concerns the good news stemming from the quarterly national accounts of a higher than expected GDP growth in the second quarter of 1999. As a result, over the first half of 1999, Belgian GDP growth reached 1.7% (yoy). The FPB GDP-leading indicator points to a further cyclical upturn in the second half of the year. It is also worth stressing that according to the information available today (in terms of value added, trade and unemployment), the impact of the dioxin crisis is still in line with the assumptions made in our July forecasts.

    All in all, GDP growth in 1999 has been revised upward from 1.7% to 1.9%.

    As prospects for the world economy are looking brighter now than four months ago and the 2000 Federal Budget is on an expansionary track, GDP growth in 2000 has been revised upward from 2.5% to 3.0%. Both developments are complementary - in the sense that the former primarily triggers exports, whereas the latter in the short-term mainly boosts private consumption- although the impact of the more favourable international environment on GDP growth is more important than the revision coming from the Budget 2000.

    The acceleration of Belgian export markets in 2000 should indeed be stronger than previously expected due to higher import growth experienced by our European trading partners as well as in the rest of the world, resulting in stronger export growth than estimated earlier.

    Compared to our July forecasts, the budgetary impulse for 2000 taken into account in these new forecasts is more than BEF 30 billion. At this stage, the simulation results in this field must be interpreted with caution. The most important effect of the measures should be seen in the area of private consumption, resulting from an increase in employment (reductions in social contributions) and accordingly in households’ real disposable income (reinforced by tax cuts and higher pensions).

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 04-99  Publication(en),

  • Effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires de l’instauration d’une cotisation sociale généralisée 15/08/1999

    L’étude porte sur les effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires d’opérations de re- déploiement de la pression fiscale et parafiscale consistant en l’instauration d’une cotisation sociale généralisée ( CSG ), qui viendrait remplacer différents prélève- ments fiscaux ou parafiscaux existant actuellement. La pression fiscale de la CSG sur l’ensemble des revenus professionnels, immobiliers et de remplacement se- rait équivalente à celle des prélèvements supprimés; cependant dans la mesure où la CSG  serait assise sur une assiette plus large, elle génère un produit net pour les finances publiques. Différentes modalités d’affectation de ce produit sont exa- minées du point de vue des effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires: allègement du déficit des administrations publiques, élargissement de la tranche exonérée de la CSG , baisse des cotisations patronales de sécurité sociale et diminution du taux normal de TVA. La deuxième section du présent rapport présente de façon détaillée les modalités d’introduction de la CSG , les prélèvements supprimés et les diverses affectations du produit net qui sont retenues. La troisième section présente les effets macroéconomiques et budgétaires de la CSG , dans différentes hypothèses d’affectation envisagées

    Working Papers - Working Paper 06-99  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

  • STU 03-99 : Special Topic - Determinants of Belgium’s export performance 15/07/1999

    In contrast with strong global economic growth in 1998, Belgian exports declined substantially during the third and fourth quarter, as the crisis in South-East Asia and in some other emerging economies progressively affected intra-European trade. Even given a scenario of fairly strong Belgian export recovery during the second half of the current year, the low level reached in the first quarter of 1999 implies a low annual growth rate for exports in 1999.

    Employment creation should remain significant in 1999 (about 1.1%); domestic demand (2.1%) should keep driving economic growth, although at a much slower pace than in 1998. The implications of the dioxin crisis remain largely uncertain. Assuming that most detrimental effects would progressively disappear after three months, it should reduce exports in 1999 by 0.3% and GDP by 0.2%. In this scenario, GDP growth in 1999 should be 1.7%; net exports contribution to GDP growth would be negative by 0.2%.

    Economic growth in 2000 should attain 2.5% and be supported by better export performance (5.1%): the depreciation of the Euro in 1999 should increase the competitiveness of the Euro-zone, boosting our main export markets. Belgian exports should also take advantage from the decrease in employer's contributions to social security, and from a moderate recovery in our agricultural and agro-industrial exports.

    Private consumption growth (1.8%) should remain moderate as no further impulse is expected from households' savings. Business gross capital formation should remain weak. Profits and related revenues should suffer from, among others, the deterioration in the terms of trade due to higher energy prices and the depreciation in the BEF effective exchange rate during the first half of 1999, as well as from the financial consequences of the dioxin crisis.

    The pace of economic growth, the different measures limiting wage increases, and the active labour market policy measures should allow employment to keep growing in 2000 (1.0%). Inflation should remain subdued at 1.3%.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 03-99  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-99 : Special Topic - The FPB macroeconomic leading indicators 20/05/1999

    Sustained economic growth in Belgium in 1998 was supported by rapidly growing private consumption and investment. In contrast, the contribution of trade to real economic growth was negative in 1998. Nevertheless, a strong increase in terms of trade, due to the low prices of raw materials, allowed trade still to make a positive contribution towards growth in nominal terms.

    Export performance remains the key question for 1999: the deterioration of our export markets led to negative growth in Belgian exports in 1998Q4 (t/t-4) and the timing and strength of a recovery remain uncertain. International organisations are forecasting a clear upturn in world trade in mid-1999. On the basis of this scenario, the FPB is forecasting economic growth in Belgium of 2% in 1999.

    So far, however, leading indicators suggest that the upturn in exports in 1999 could be weaker than expected. The Balkan crisis is also having a negative impact on growth prospects. On the other hand, the recent fall in interest and exchange rates in the euro area does improve prospects for 1999.

    Domestic demand is not expected to be as buoyant as in 1998, and it should continue to drive growth in 1999. With a 1% increase in employment, consumer confidence will remain high: private consumption growth should be around 2%. Inflation remains at around 1%. The general government borrowing requirement should be less than 1% of GDP, due to the low level of interest rates.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of GDP of 2.5% per year during the 2000-2004 period in an “unchanged policy” scenario. Gross nominal wages are expected to be broadly in line with nominal labour costs in the neighbouring countries. Planned cuts in non-wage costs should therefore lead to enhanced competitiveness. Nonetheless, the slightly accelerated pace of inflation in Europe should cause domestic inflation to rise to 1.6%. The average rate of growth of employment, strongly supported by active labour market policy measures, is estimated at around 0.9% per year in average, leading to a drop in unemployment.

    Based on this scenario, the general government financing capacity should become positive from 2001 onward. The “budgetary margins”, which will cumulatively reach 1.7% of GDP in 2004, will probably be used to decrease the tax burden or/and increase expenditure: this “changed policy” scenario implies stronger macroeconomic performance than the “unchanged policy” scenario.

    Séries clôturées - Short Term Update 02-99  Publication(en),

  • Les enjeux de la politique économique belge dans la troisième phase de l’Union 15/02/1999

    L'objet de ce rapport est de mettre en avant les enjeux et les implications possibles que le passage à la troisième phase de l'Union Economique et Monétaire pourrait représenter pour la conduite de la politique économique en Belgique (qu'il s'agisse de la politique monétaire, budgétaire, de revenus ou structurelle), en se situant dans le cadre du processus de coordination des politiques économiques qui se met en place dans l'Union européenne (grandes orientations économiques, Pacte de Stabilité et de croissance, surveillances des déficits excessifs, plans d'actions nationaux pour l'emploi, surveillance multilatérale, réformes structurelles des marchés, produits et capitaux...). Ce rapport ne vise donc pas à remettre en question ce processus de coordination, ni à critiquer la logique économique qui sous-tend les résolutions du Pacte de stabilité ou les objectifs de la politique monétaire qui sera suivie par la banque centrale européenne.

    Working Papers - Working Paper 01-99  Publication(fr), Publicatie(nl),

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