Page Title

Publicaties

Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.

Documents (281)

2001

  • STU 04-01 : Special Topic - ICT: passing fancy or radical innovation ? 13/11/2001

    During the past one and a half years, the world economy has been hit by a series of shocks, notably the large rise in oil prices, the abrupt slowing of growth in the United States (initiated by the bursting of the speculative bubble in the ICT sector) and the events of 11 September. This resulted in a synchronised slowdown in the three major economic regions (the United States, Japan and the European Union) and a pronounced downturn in world trade.

    It is obvious that Belgium, being a ‘small open economy’, cannot escape the prevailing slowdown in the world economy. The forecasts for all components of final demand have therefore been revised downwards for both 2001 and 2002 as compared to our July projections. Under these circumstances GDP would not exceed a growth rate of 1.1% this year and 1.3% in real terms next year. These average annual growth rates are based on slightly negative growth figures (quarter-on-quarter) during the second half of this year, while positive and steadily increasing quarterly growth rates should be recorded in 2002 due to a recovery in exports.

    Domestic demand should increase by only 1.1% both this year and next, while average growth over the last five years has amounted to 2.5%. Exports should suffer from slackening world demand in 2001, consequently growing by only 0.8%. In 2002 exports should accelerate and reach an average annual growth of 2.8%, which is much slower than in the second half of the 1990s.The uncertainties surrounding these forecasts in the present political and economic situation should not be underestimated. The scenario on which the present forecasts are based assumes that the loss of consumer and business confidence will be of short duration, implying that the US economy will recover quickly next year. The consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September and the military response to those attacks may, however, have a more prolonged impact on investors’ and consumers’ confidence. As a final remark, it has to be underlined that the economic forecasts published in this STU were finalised before Sabena was declared bankrupt.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-01  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-01 : Special Topic - Wage cost reduction in the Belgian labour market 31/05/2001

    Belgian GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2000 to 2.8% this year and to be less export-led than last year. Even when taking into account a recovery in world trade during the last few months of 2001, growth in Belgian exports should ease back significantly on average this year, due to the deceleration in world economic growth and the appreciation of the euro. Domestic demand should, however, remain robust in 2001 (2.5%). Private consumption growth (2.5%) should almost equal the average for the last three years, while business investment should do even better. Employment growth should remain strong this year (1.1%), although lower than the exceptional figure seen last year (1.8%). The decrease in inflation seems to be slower than was expected earlier. The general government financing capacity should move from 0% in 2000 to 0.7% of GDP in 2001.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.7% during the period from 2002 to 2006.This favourable development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand. The role of exports should be more limited. Private consumption should be more dynamic during the period covered by the forecast than it was during the 1996-2000 period thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated in particular by an important fiscal reform). Gross fixed capital formation should also increase rapidly, reflecting the increase in business investment. Export growth, on the other hand, should not exceed 5.9% on average: the loss in export market share should be confirmed and the contribution to GDP growth from net exports is expected to decline.

    The inflation rate should be kept below 2% in the medium term. Wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity are the main domestic factors behind this more moderate inflation.

    Annual employment growth should be around 1% between 2002 and 2006, but a large proportion of this expansion should be absorbed by an increase in the labour force. The unemployment rate in the broad sense (including long-term older unemployed) should decline more modestly (from 12.9% of the labour force in 2000 to 11.3% in 2006) than the official unemployment rate (from 10% to 7.5%).

    Assuming an unchanged policy, but taking into account the measures decided upon recently, the financing capacity of the public administrations should improve up to the equivalent of 1.3% of GDP in 2006. Given the ambitious budgetary targets of Belgium’s stability program for 2001-2005, this means that the remaining budgetary margins should be, at most, very limited.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-01  Publication(en),

2000

  • STU 04-00 : Special topic - Technological choices for electricity generation in Belgium 22/11/2000

    Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.8% this year - the highest growth rate since 1988 - and 3.2% next year. Exports and private consumption were very buoyant during the first half of 2000. However, both the private consumption cycle and the export cycle should have peaked by the middle of 2000 and should gradually move down towards their trend path in the second half of the current year. This should lead to a slowdown in GDP growth during the second half of 2000, although it will remain robust, at rates of about 3% yoy.

    The overall economic environment should remain favourable next year. The growth of external demand should largely exceed the average seen during the last decade, despite a moderate slowdown in our main export markets. Belgian exporters should, as in 2000 and contrary to what has generally been observed in the last two decades, lose almost no market share, reflecting improved competitiveness due to the depreciation of the euro and subdued domestic costs. The 2001 Budget contains some personal tax cuts and supplementary social benefits which should support households’ disposable income, while the loss of purchasing power due to rising energy prices is not expected to be repeated. Households’ disposable income should also benefit from substantial growth in employment. The rise in employment seen since 1995 should indeed continue during the forecast period. This is supported by sustained growth in economic activity and government measures aimed at promoting employment. The expected increase in the participation rate should sustain the labour supply and help to limit pressures in the labour market.

    The combined effect of persistently high oil prices and a weak euro resulted in an upward revision of inflation prospects for this and next year, which is now expected to be 2.5% in 2000 and 1.9% in 2001. It appears that import price increases have at last begun to be passed on to domestic consumer prices. It should be noted, however, that these “second round” effects are not, so far, spreading to wages.

    Taking into account the 2001 Budget and the macro-economic outlook presented above, and disregarding the one-off revenues from the auctioning of UMTS licenses, the general government budget balance is expected to move from broad equilibrium in 2000 to a small surplus in 2001.

    The underlying risks to our macro-economic forecasts are mainly linked to the international financial conditions that will prevail in the year 2001. Additionally, wage increases in Belgium exceeding wage developments in its main trading partners could harm Belgium’s competitive position.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-00  Publication(en),

1999

  • STU 04-99 : Special Topic - The dioxin crisis: an applied input-output analysis 22/11/1999

    Since our July forecasts, a number of new developments inside and outside Belgium have occurred. Taking those elements into account, a rapid and tentative updating of our forecasts for 1999-2000 has been made.

    The first element concerns the good news stemming from the quarterly national accounts of a higher than expected GDP growth in the second quarter of 1999. As a result, over the first half of 1999, Belgian GDP growth reached 1.7% (yoy). The FPB GDP-leading indicator points to a further cyclical upturn in the second half of the year. It is also worth stressing that according to the information available today (in terms of value added, trade and unemployment), the impact of the dioxin crisis is still in line with the assumptions made in our July forecasts.

    All in all, GDP growth in 1999 has been revised upward from 1.7% to 1.9%.

    As prospects for the world economy are looking brighter now than four months ago and the 2000 Federal Budget is on an expansionary track, GDP growth in 2000 has been revised upward from 2.5% to 3.0%. Both developments are complementary - in the sense that the former primarily triggers exports, whereas the latter in the short-term mainly boosts private consumption- although the impact of the more favourable international environment on GDP growth is more important than the revision coming from the Budget 2000.

    The acceleration of Belgian export markets in 2000 should indeed be stronger than previously expected due to higher import growth experienced by our European trading partners as well as in the rest of the world, resulting in stronger export growth than estimated earlier.

    Compared to our July forecasts, the budgetary impulse for 2000 taken into account in these new forecasts is more than BEF 30 billion. At this stage, the simulation results in this field must be interpreted with caution. The most important effect of the measures should be seen in the area of private consumption, resulting from an increase in employment (reductions in social contributions) and accordingly in households’ real disposable income (reinforced by tax cuts and higher pensions).

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-99  Publication(en),

  • STU 02-99 : Special Topic - The FPB macroeconomic leading indicators 20/05/1999

    Sustained economic growth in Belgium in 1998 was supported by rapidly growing private consumption and investment. In contrast, the contribution of trade to real economic growth was negative in 1998. Nevertheless, a strong increase in terms of trade, due to the low prices of raw materials, allowed trade still to make a positive contribution towards growth in nominal terms.

    Export performance remains the key question for 1999: the deterioration of our export markets led to negative growth in Belgian exports in 1998Q4 (t/t-4) and the timing and strength of a recovery remain uncertain. International organisations are forecasting a clear upturn in world trade in mid-1999. On the basis of this scenario, the FPB is forecasting economic growth in Belgium of 2% in 1999.

    So far, however, leading indicators suggest that the upturn in exports in 1999 could be weaker than expected. The Balkan crisis is also having a negative impact on growth prospects. On the other hand, the recent fall in interest and exchange rates in the euro area does improve prospects for 1999.

    Domestic demand is not expected to be as buoyant as in 1998, and it should continue to drive growth in 1999. With a 1% increase in employment, consumer confidence will remain high: private consumption growth should be around 2%. Inflation remains at around 1%. The general government borrowing requirement should be less than 1% of GDP, due to the low level of interest rates.

    The medium-term outlook for Belgium points to an average growth rate of GDP of 2.5% per year during the 2000-2004 period in an “unchanged policy” scenario. Gross nominal wages are expected to be broadly in line with nominal labour costs in the neighbouring countries. Planned cuts in non-wage costs should therefore lead to enhanced competitiveness. Nonetheless, the slightly accelerated pace of inflation in Europe should cause domestic inflation to rise to 1.6%. The average rate of growth of employment, strongly supported by active labour market policy measures, is estimated at around 0.9% per year in average, leading to a drop in unemployment.

    Based on this scenario, the general government financing capacity should become positive from 2001 onward. The “budgetary margins”, which will cumulatively reach 1.7% of GDP in 2004, will probably be used to decrease the tax burden or/and increase expenditure: this “changed policy” scenario implies stronger macroeconomic performance than the “unchanged policy” scenario.

    Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-99  Publication(en),

First page Previous page  10 van 12  Next page Last page
Please do not visit, its a trap for bots