Nieuws
Perscommuniqués
Colloquium
Laatste 5 gegevensbanken
Publicaties
Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
The new Economic outlook for Belgium for the period 2011-2016 is based on a context that is characterised by a stronger-than-expected recovery of the world economy, spurred on in particular by the Asian emerging economies and the US economy. Three main risks could undermine this international scenario: the budgetary position of several countries and the financial risks that this may entail; the volatility of commodity prices; and the overheating of several emerging economies.
Belgian GDP growth should amount to 2.2% in 2011 and in 2012, affirming its outperformance compared to the euro area since the start of the crisis. This growth rate should persist in the medium term. In 2011 and 2012, domestic demand growth should accelerate, backed by private consumption and business investment. Public investment should be highly dynamic in the run-up to the local elections of 2012. After an impressive increase in 2010, exports are expected to increase at a slower pace in 2011 and 2012 due to the deceleration in world trade growth. From 2013 onwards, growth in domestic demand and exports should remain close to historical average rates.
Belgian inflation should accelerate considerably in 2011 (3.5%), mainly due to a steep increase in raw material prices. Without new shocks on commodity prices, inflation should stabilise around 2% in the medium term.
Belgian employment coped remarkably well with the crisis. The rise in employment in the enterprise sector in 2010 (+27 000 persons) had already compensated for the decline in 2009. This performance seems to be related mainly to the so-called temporary unemployment system and the further increase in the number of people working in the government-subsidised voucher programme for domestic-type services. From 2011 onwards, employment in the enterprise sector should increase by roughly 46 000 persons per year. The number of unemployed should decline by 8 000 units in 2011 and by 3 000 units in 2012, followed by a strengthening in the annual decline in unemployment of up to 16 000 persons in 2016. The unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should fall from 12.6% of the labour force in 2010 to 11% at the end of the projection period.
The general government deficit amounted to 4.1% of GDP in 2010 and should shrink to 3.8% of GDP in 2011, taking into account the budget information up to mid-April. Under a constant policy assumption, the public deficit should increase significantly in 2012 (4.4% of GDP) and decline gradually from 2013 onwards to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2016. The deficit reduction path, which aims to achieve a balanced budget in 2015, requires structural consolidation measures amounting to 17 billion euro.
STU 2-11 was finalised on 1 June 2011.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-11 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic outlook 2011-2016 (fr), (nl),
Overeenkomstig de wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen (INR) de cijfers van de economische begroting meegedeeld aan de minister voor Ondernemen en Vereenvoudigen. Volgens de gangbare procedure heeft het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) een voorstel van economische begroting voorgelegd aan het wetenschappelijk comité en aan de raad van bestuur van het INR. Laatstgenoemde keurt de definitieve cijfers goed en draagt de eindverantwoordelijkheid. Het wetenschappelijk comité heeft een gunstig advies uitgebracht over de economische begroting.
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 2 van de Nationale rekeningen 2009 (‘Gedetailleerde rekeningen en tabellen’) en met de kwartaalaggregaten tot het derde kwartaal van 2010.
De hypothesen in verband met de internationale omgeving zijn gebaseerd op recente consensusvooruitzichten (The Economist) en kwartaalramingen van de wereldgoederenhandel die opgesteld werden door het Nederlandse Centraal Planbureau. De evolutie van de financiële variabelen (wisselkoersen, rentevoeten, olieprijzen) is afgeleid uit de verwachtingen van de financiële markten van midden januari. De vooruitzichten voor België werden gegenereerd aan de hand van de jaar‐ en de kwartaalversie van het Modtrim‐model, dat op het FPB werd ontwikkeld. Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 25 januari 2011.
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2011 (fr), (nl),
In October, the FPB prepared an update of its medium-term economic outlook of May 2010. This new outlook covers a longer period (2010-2020) than usual because it was drawn up in the framework of the macroeconomic surveillance process under the Europe 2020 Strategy, with a view to the preparation of the draft Belgian National Reform Programme.
This new outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a recovery that should emerge in 2010-2011 and even gain momentum in the medium term. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. Large budget deficits and global imbalances continue to threaten the stability of worldwide economic growth.
Yearly Belgian economic growth should amount to approximately 1.8% in 2010 and 2011 (based on our September forecast described in STU 3-10) and fluctuate around 2% thereafter. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand has been expected to rise again in 2010, despite the on-going fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of 1.8% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, have recovered significantly in 2010. Thereafter, exports should grow at a rate close to its historical average. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be positive for the whole projection period (0.3-0.4 %-points on average for 2012-2020). Employment seems to have already experienced a moderate recovery in 2010.
Employment should increase further in 2011 and 2012, but at a limited pace as employers try to push up labour productivity and average working time from the historically very low levels that they reached in 2009. From 2013 to 2015, employment growth should become more sustained before gradually dropping again towards the end of the forecast. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.9% in 2010, but should recover to 68.2% in 2015 and 69.8% in 2020, a rate still well below the 75% target set by the EU. Unemployment (broad administrative definition) is expected to peak in 2012 at a level that is 103 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 591 000 units in 2020.
The general government budget deficit should shrink from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010, 4.6% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012. Thereafter, the deficit should remain almost constant up to 2020. A further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.
STU 04-10 was finalised on 22 December 2010.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-10 (en),
The Federal Planning Bureau took part, in collaboration with the German institute DIW Berlin, in a technical assistance project financed by the European Commission aimed at developing different modelling approaches for the economy of Lesotho, a small country landlocked within the territory of South Africa. In the context of this project a macro-econometric model was elaborated. This Working Paper describes the main characteristics and the behavioural equations of this model and discusses a baseline simulation and an alternative scenario aimed at reducing up to 2012 the expected public deficit.
Artikels - Article 2010110301
Samen met het Duitse instituut DIW Berlin nam het Federaal Planbureau deel aan project waarin technische assistentie verleend wordt om de economie van Lesotho – een klein land dat omsloten wordt door Zuid Afrika – op verschillende manieren te modelleren. Deze Working Paper geeft een overzicht van de belangrijkste karakteristieken van het macro-econometrisch model dat ontwikkeld werd in het kader van dit project. Het was vooral de bedoeling een model te bouwen dat complementair is en interageert met de zogenaamde “Financial Programming”, die werd ontwikkeld door andere partners in het project. Daarnaast besteedt deze paper aandacht aan een basisscenario tot en met het begrotingsjaar 2012/13 en een variant waarin de overheidsuitgaven teruggeschroefd worden als reactie op de verwachte daling van de inkomsten uit douanerechten.
Deze Working Paper is enkel beschikbaar in het Engels.
Working Papers - Working Paper 17-10 (en),
Dit rapport presenteert de resultaten van de regionalisering van de nationale economische vooruitzichten van het Federaal Planbureau voor de periode 2009-2015. Net als de vorige rapporten, is dit rapport het resultaat van een samenwerking tussen het Federaal Planbureau en de studiediensten van de drie Belgische gewesten (BISA, IWEPS en SVR). Die samenwerking die eind 2005 van start ging, heeft de ontwikkeling van het multiregionaal en multisectoraal HERMREG-model mogelijk gemaakt, een model dat in de categorie macro-econometrische modellen van het top-downtype kan worden gerangschikt. HERMREG4 stemt volledig overeen met het nationale HERMES-model van het Federaal Planbureau. Dat betekent dat de nationale middellangetermijnvooruitzichten van HERMES opgesplitst worden op het niveau van de beschouwde entiteiten op basis van endogene regionale verdeelsleutels.
Andere publicaties - OPHERMREG1001 (fr), (nl),
The new medium-term outlook for Belgium is based on an international context that is marked by a stronger-than-expected recovery, particularly spurred on by the large Asian emerging economies and the American economy. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts continues to be higher than before the financial crisis. The important budget deficits and global trade and capital flow imbalances continue to threat the stability of worldwide economic growth.
The yearly growth of the Belgian economy should amount to 1.4% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011 and exceed 2% in 2012-2015. After a sharp decline in 2009, domestic demand should start rising again in 2010, despite the ongoing fall in business investment. As of 2011, domestic demand should rise at an average yearly rate of just above 2% as its various components regain their trend-based growth. Belgian exports, which fell by 11% in 2009, are expected to recover from 2010 onwards. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely positive in 2010 (+0.7%-points) and weaken from 2011 onwards (+0.2%-points on average) due to the acceleration in domestic demand.
Belgian inflation should not exceed 2% on a yearly basis as the limited increase in nominal unit labour costs (average annual growth of 1% during the period 2010-2015) should keep underlying inflation in check. However, this limited increase masks a decline in 2010 followed by a gradual acceleration to 2% in 2015.
Employment should decline by 33 000 units in 2010 and increase by as little as 7 000 units in 2011. As economic growth accelerates in 2012-2015, employment should expand by nearly 50 000 persons per year on average. Employment as a percentage of the population aged between 20 and 64 years, should initially fall from 68% in 2008 to 66.3% in 2010 but should recover to 67.7% in 2015, a rate still far below the 75% target set by the EU. In 2012, unemployment (broad administrative definition) is expected to peak at a level that is 128 000 units higher than in 2008. From 2013 onwards, unemployment should slowly decline and reach 698 000 units in 2015.
The general government budget deficit should shrink from 5.9% of GDP in 2009 to 4.8% of GDP in 2010. However, under the assumption of constant policy, the deficit should again exceed 5% of GDP from 2011 onwards. A further and considerable fiscal adjustment is thus necessary to cut back the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2012 and achieve a balanced budget in 2015 in accordance with the Stability Programme of January 2010.
STU 2-10 was finalised on 1 June 2010.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-10 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic outlook 2010-2015 (fr), (nl),
In deze studie worden de mogelijke effecten van een Wereldbeker voetbal in 2018 op de economische bestedingen besproken. Die bestedingen betreffen vooral de investeringen in stadions en de toeristische uitgaven van bezoekers, maar er zijn ook effecten van de bezoekende elftallen en media en de uitgaven voor organisatie en veiligheid. In totaal zijn de bestedingen ingeschat op €1,15 miljard, verspreid over acht jaar en met een ruim betrouwbaarheidsinterval. Met behulp van twee economische modellen, nl. een input‐outputmodel en het macroeconomische model HERMES, zijn de gevolgen van die bestedingen voor de economische activiteit berekend. Het effect op het BBP zou oplopen tot ongeveer 0,13 % in 2018. Het effect op de werkgelegenheid zou bij benadering 450 tot 750 extra arbeidsplaatsen zijn gedurende de aanloopfase naar het toernooi, en een equivalent van 4 000 tot 8 000 manjaar tijdens het toernooi zelf.
In juli 2010 werd kritiek geleverd op deze studie, die echter op vele punten weerlegbaar bleek. Een korte reactie op dat commentaar vindt u hier
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-10 (en), (mix),
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 10 februari 2010.
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2010-2011 (2) (fr), (nl),
This study is devoted to the analysis of the main effects on the Belgian economy, for the period 2010-2020, of various forms of tax-shifting aimed at increasing taxes on energy and, simultaneously, decreasing other forms of taxation. All these variants have been simulated using the FPB’s medium-term model for Belgian economy (HERMES).
Artikels - Article 2009122102
In view of the new round of stability and convergence programmes (SCP) by the EMU member states, the FPB transmitted a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy to the federal government. In this outlook, the short-term international assumptions are based on the November forecasts of the EC. These assumptions result in a gradual recovery of Belgian GDP in 2010 (0.8%) and 2011 (1.6%), after a decline of 3.1% in 2009. More information on this simulation can be found on pages 5-6.
As world trade appears to recover at a faster pace than expected in the EC outlook, the FPB produced a technical update of the SCP-simulation. This second simulation results in relatively stronger Belgian economic growth in 2010 and 2011 (1.1% and 1.7% respectively). From 2012 to 2014 economic growth is expected to be 2.1% on average, which might not be sufficient to close the output gap by 2014. Comments in the next paragraphs are based on this exercise.
Private demand was heavily affected by the financial and economic crisis. Private consumption suffered from a lack of confidence which brought an important increase along in the savings rate in 2009. In the medium term, consumption growth should gradually recover but remain below 2%. Gross fixed capital formation plummeted in 2009 and is unlikely to recover soon as idle production capacity is still abundant. From 2011 to 2014, average investment growth should amount to 2.1%. Exports declined by more than 10% in 2009, but should recover from 2010 onwards and reach an average growth rate of 4.4% from 2011 to 2014.
As employment typically reacts with a lag to the business cycle, the decrease in employment should even be stronger in 2010 than in 2009, before increasing gradually from 2011 onwards. The (broad administrative) unemployment rate should increase by 2.5 percentage points in 3 years and reach 14.3% in 2011. From 2012 onwards the unemployment rate should diminish somewhat, but total administrative unemployment should still amount to more than 730 000 persons in 2014 (130 000 persons more than in 2008).
Due to the recession the public deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP in 2009. Under an unchanged policy assumption the net public financing requirement should decline by 0.6% of GDP in 2010 and roughly stabilise somewhat below 5.5% in the medium term.
STU 04-09 was finalised on 21 December 2009.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-09 (en),
Deze Working Paper onderzoekt de belangrijkste gevolgen voor de Belgische economie van verschillende vormen van 'tax shifting' die tot doel hebben de energiebelasting te verhogen en tegelijk andere heffingsvormen (vooral op arbeid) te verminderen. De resultaten van die studie tonen aan dat een dubbel dividend (toename van de werkgelegenheid en daling van het energieverbruik en de CO2-uitstoot) haalbaar is wanneer de verhoging van de energiebelasting wordt gecombineerd met een daling van de belasting op arbeid.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-09 (fr),
Deze vooruitzichten houden rekening met de jaaraggregaten die gepubliceerd werden in deel 1 van de Nationale rekeningen 2008 (‘Eerste raming van de jaarlijkse rekeningen’) en met de kwartaalaggregaten tot het eerste kwartaal van 2009.
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2010-2011 (fr), (nl),
The concepts of potential growth and the output gap are important tools, respectively, for assessing the supply- side capacity of an economy and evaluating the state of the business cycle. They have also become an essential ingredient of the European fiscal surveillance process. In this Working Paper we compare, in the context of the financial crisis, revisions of potential output for Belgium made recently by the Federal Planning Bureau and international organizations. Those comparisons aim at highlighting the uncertainty associated with those revisions as well as having a better understanding of some of the channels through which the crisis may reduce potential output.
Artikels - Article 2009100606
De concepten ‘potentiële groei’ en ‘output gap’ vormen belangrijke instrumenten om de conjuncturele positie van een economie en haar productiecapaciteit te evalueren. Het zijn trouwens essentiële bestanddelen geworden van het Europees begrotingstoezicht. De wereldeconomie ondergaat momenteel de zwaarste crisis uit de naoorlogse periode en de onzekerheid over de impact van de crisis op het economisch potentieel is dus enorm. In deze Working Paper worden recente herzieningen van het groeipotentieel van de Belgische economie door het Federaal Planbureau en internationale instellingen met elkaar vergeleken. Met die vergelijking willen we de onzekerheid rond die herzieningen belichten en ook de kanalen waarlangs de crisis de potentiële output kan aantasten, beter begrijpen.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-09 (fr),
Dit rapport geeft de resultaten van de regionalisering van de nationale economische vooruitzichten van het Federaal Planbureau voor de periode 2008-2014. Het is de derde studie van dat type. Net als de vorige rapporten, is dit rapport het resultaat van een samenwerking tussen het Federaal Planbureau en de studiediensten van de drie Belgische gewesten (BISA, IWEPS en SVR).
Andere publicaties - OPHERMREG0901 (fr), (nl),
The new medium-term economic outlook for Belgium has been drawn up in an international context that is heavily influenced by the financial crisis and the deep economic recession this has brought about. Belgian GDP should fall by nearly 4% in 2009, followed by zero growth in 2010 as the crisis subsides. In the wake of a worldwide recovery, Belgian GDP growth should start accelerating from 2011 onwards, resulting in average growth for the period 2011-2014 (2.3%) that is similar to the average of the past twenty years. Note that the global economic situation is beset with many uncertainties and, therefore, the outlook is surrounded with considerable risks, especially for the short term.
Households are expected to raise their precautionary savings dramatically in 2009, thus lowering their consumption compared to last year (-0.6%). Strongly unfavourable demand prospects, combined with a sharp drop in profitability and deteriorated external financing conditions will lead to a sharp contraction in business investment (-7.5%). Domestic demand should recover slightly in 2010 and more markedly from 2011 onwards. The volume of Belgian exports is expected to go down for two years in a row (-8.9% in 2009 and -0.6% in 2010) and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be largely negative. From 2011, Belgian export growth should be close to its historical growth rate (4.8%). After a peak in 2008 (4.5%), the inflation rate should fall to 0.3% on average in 2009. In the medium term, inflation is expected to pick up again, but to remain below 2%.
The effects on employment of the sudden fall in activity should materialise progressively: domestic employment should drop on average by 37 000 jobs this year and by 53 000 jobs next year. The recovery in 2011 should not be labour-intensive and employment is only expected to increase significantly from 2012 onwards (by a little more than 43 000 jobs a year on average). This evolution of employment, combined with an increase in the labour supply, should lead to a rise in unemployment of 194 000 units from 2009 to 2011. In the next three years, the unemployment rate (broad administrative definition) should go up from 11.8% to 15.2%. As from 2012, the unemployment rate should gradually decrease to reach 14.5% in 2014.
Under the assumption of constant policy, public sector accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 4.3% of GDP in 2009, widening to 5.6% of GDP in 2010. The end of the recession will not lead to a reduction in the deficit, which should peak at 6.1% of GDP in 2012 before slightly improving afterwards. As a result, Belgian public debt should again experience a snowball effect, going up from 89.3% of GDP in 2008 to 106% of GDP in 2014.
STU 2-09 was finalised on 27 May 2009
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-09 (en),
Deze working paper analyseert de recente ontwikkeling van de Belgische uitvoermarktaandelen, de competitiviteit en de lopende rekening van de betalingsbalans. In het eerste deel worden de recente evoluties beschreven. In het tweede deel wordt getracht die evoluties te verklaren.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-09 (nl),
Vooruitzichten - Economic outlook 2009-2014 (fr), (nl),
Voor verschillende terugkerende wettelijke opdrachten van het FPB moeten macro-economische langetermijnscenario's voor de Belgische economie worden ontwikkeld. Om de samenhang van die scenario's te bevorderen en ze in te passen binnen een strikt theoretisch kader, was het nodig dat het FPB kon beschikken over een langetermijnmodel waarin de economische groei afhankelijk is van de evolutie van het aanbod van productiefactoren.
Voor de bouw van dat model heeft men zich laten inspireren door gelijkaardige werkzaamheden van het CPB in Nederland. De publicatie geeft een gedetailleerde weergave van de bouw, de kenmerken en de schatting van het model op basis van de gegevens van de Belgische nationale boekhouding. Het model zou bijvoorbeeld bijdragen tot de ontwikkeling van de macro-economische scenario's voor langetermijnvooruitzichten die tot doel hebben de budgettaire impact van de vergrijzing te evalueren.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-09 (fr),
Deze vooruitzichten werden voltooid op 11 februari 2009.
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2009 (2) (fr), (nl),
Het Federaal Planbureau heeft, op vraag van de federale en gewestelijke milieuoverheden, de energetische en economische impact van het Energie/Klimaatpakket, dat op 23 januari 2008 door de Europese Commissie werd voorgesteld, geraamd voor België. Dat pakket vormt de praktische invulling van het besluit van de Europese Raad van maart 2007 om op Europees vlak precieze doelstellingen voor de uitstoot van broeikasgassen en hernieuwbare energiebronnen vast te leggen, namelijk de broeikasgasemissies met 20 % verminderen tegen 2020, of zelfs een reductie van 30 % indien een internationale klimaatwijzigingsovereenkomst kan worden bereikt, en het aandeel van hernieuwbare energiebronnen in het energieverbruik op 20 % brengen tegen 2020. Het Energie/Klimaatpakket bevat onder meer een lastenverdeling tussen de lidstaten, concrete maatregelen en toepassingsmodaliteiten om de doelstellingen te bereiken. Er werd een evaluatie gemaakt van deze voorstellen, toegepast op de Belgische context.
Working Papers - Working Paper 21-08 (en),
The FPB has revised its medium-term outlook for 2008-2013 for the Belgian economy. For the 2008-2010 period, the outlook adopts the international economic scenario provided by the OECD outlook of November 2008. The uncertainty surrounding the results is exceptionally large and downside risks could prove to be greater than upside risks. The greatest downside risks include a longer than expected period of distress on financial markets, and that emerging markets could be hit harder than anticipated.
The outlook for Belgium shows average GDP growth reaching only 1.5% during the period 2008-2013 (1.9% for the period 2001-2007). This relatively weak performance is largely explained by weak GDP growth in 2008 (1.4%), a fall in economic growth next year (-0.3%) and a limited recovery in 2010. Over the period 2011-2013, GDP growth is expected to stabilise at a rate slightly above 2%, which might not allow the output gap to be completely closed by the end of the projection.
After dynamic growth in 2007, private consumption expansion should be much more limited in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, household demand growth should increase gradually and then stabilise at a rate close to 2%. After dynamic growth in 2008, gross fixed capital formation should slightly decrease in 2009, before recovering in 2010 and increasing by 2.4% on average during the 2011-2013 period. Given the unfavourable international environment next year, exports are expected to decrease in 2009. Over the period 2010-2013, exports should increase by 4.4% on average and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to be slightly positive.
The worsening of the economic situation should lead to a decrease in employment in 2009. In the medium term, employment should increase again, at a yearly rate reaching 0.8% at the end of the projection. With employment growth heavily affected by the adverse economic situation in the short run and in view of the increase in the labour force, the unemployment rate (broad definition) will soar to 12.9% by 2010 (against 11.9% in 2008), before levelling off at around 13.2% from 2011 onwards. Total administrative unemployment should stand at almost 700,000 persons in 2013 (65,000 persons more than in 2007).
Under the assumption of unchanged policy, the public accounts are expected to deteriorate markedly, with a net public financing requirement of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and up to 2.6% in 2011-2013.
STU 04-08 was finalised on 11 December 2008.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-08 (en),
Federaal Planbureau
