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Dans un souci de transparence et d’information, le BFP publie régulièrement les méthodes et résultats de ses travaux. Les publications sont organisées en séries, entre autres, les perspectives, les working papers et planning papers. Certains rapports peuvent également être consultés ici, de même que les bulletins du Short Term Update publiés jusqu’en 2015. Une recherche par thématique, type de publication, auteur et année vous est proposée.
In order to improve our understanding of the divergent evolutions that recently emerged between European countries in terms of labour productivity, this paper compares the labour productivity growth of three small open European countries: Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on market services as they are the most important single factor that is responsible for the divergences. The comparison shows that, while Austria and Belgium recorded a decrease in their productivity growth between 1995 and 2004, the Netherlands followed the American pattern and has recorded an increase in their growth rate since 1995. The decomposition of labour productivity growth makes it possible to underline the important role played by total factor productivity (TFP) in the Dutch upsurge in productivity growth. The breakdown of the data by industry shows the importance of the Distribution sector in the Dutch performance. The growth of TFP observed in the Distribution sector is then linked to different potential determinants: ICT accumulation and use, labour qualifications, R&D and innovation and regulations.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-07 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-07 (nl),
The distinction between the young and the elderly within low and high wage earning employment in HERMES, the FPB's medium-term macroeconomic model, enables the assessment of both age and wage related labour cost reducing policies. The age structure of salaried employment in each branch of activity is embedded in a three-stage mechanism. First, aggregate demand and the relative cost of labour to capital determine salaried employment. Next, relative wages allocate employment among three major labour categories: low-paid jobs, high-paid jobs and special-employment programmes. Finally, within each labour category relative wages allocate employment between the young (aged less than fifty) and the elderly (aged fifty or more).
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-07 (en),
Every three years, each EU member state is required to set out its political priorities related to economic growth and job creation in a so-called National Reform Programme ( NRP ). Gauged by the latest medium-term economic outlook produced by the Federal Planning Bureau, compliance with the main macroeconomic objectives contained in the Belgian NRP will still require sizable efforts, especially regarding the labour market. Furthermore, our analysis shows that reducing social security contributions in order to lower the tax wedge on labour as foreseen in the NRP , is efficient in increasing the employment rate, especially when targeted at low wage earners, but also that such policies have a negative effect on the objectives related to public finances and CO 2 emissions.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-07 (fr),
This working paper gives an overview of the Modtrim team’s recent research in the field of Belgian exports and export markets. In the first chapter a new leading indicator is introduced as a supplementary tool to determine a growth profile for Belgium’s potential export markets in the first quarters of the forecasting period. In the second chapter, an attempt is made to improve forecasts of Belgium’s exports by breaking down the model equation into a goods and a services component. Finally, the third chapter reveals that (a lack of) competitiveness is probably not the only reason for the losses of export market share in Belgium and in some of its main trading partners in the past 25 years.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-07 (en),
En 2004, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a publié deux rapports intitulés « Perspectives énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2030 » (Planning Paper 95) et « Demande maîtrisée d’électricité : élaboration d’une projection à l’horizon 2020 » (Working Paper 19-04). Ces rapports se concentrent sur la Belgique et ne détaillent pas les perspectives énergétiques par Région. A la demande de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a régionalisé les scénarios énergétiques décrits dans ces deux rapports et comparé les résultats de la régionalisation pour l’année 2000 avec les chiffres du bilan énergétique régional.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-07 (fr), (nl),
Le BFP publie depuis le début des années quatre-vingt des perspectives à moyen terme pour l’économie belge. Le document de travail ci-joint analyse les erreurs de projections pour les principaux indicateurs macro-économiques sur la période 1987-2005 et tente d’identifier l’origine de celles-ci. Une telle analyse vise à donner aux utilisateurs des perspectives une idée sur l’ampleur des incertitudes entourant de tels exercices et à mettre en évidence certaines faiblesses méthodologiques afin d’y remédier.
Working Papers - Working paper 08-07 (en),
En 2004, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a publié deux rapports intitulés « Perspectives énergétiques pour la Belgique à l’horizon 2030 » (Planning Paper 95) et « Demande maîtrisée d’électricité : élaboration d’une projection à l’horizon 2020 » (Working Paper 19-04). Ces rapports se concentrent sur la Belgique et ne détaillent pas les perspectives énergétiques par Région. A la demande de la Région flamande, le Bureau fédéral du Plan a régionalisé les scénarios énergétiques décrits dans ces deux rapports et comparé les résultats de la régionalisation pour l’année 2000 avec les chiffres du bilan énergétique régional.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-07 (fr), (nl),
This paper provides a rough estimate for Belgium of the proportion of service jobs at risk of being offshored in the wake of ICT-developments, and compares the results for Belgium with results for the EU15 and the US. Occupational employment data from the Labour Force Survey are used to produce this estimate by identifying service jobs that could possibly be offshored due to ICT-enabled tradability. The results show that the share of such jobs is lower for Belgium than for the EU15 or the US, but that there is an upward trend in this share over the period 1993 to 2005. Industry-level data and a shift-and-share analysis are used to explain the results.
Working Papers - Working paper 06-07 (en),
The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the main drivers of economic growth and productivity evolution in Belgium between 1970 and 2004, based on a consistent data set. The growth accounting methodology is applied to explain value added and labour productivity growth for total economy, manufacturing and market services. This decomposition exercise diverges from what has been applied in Belgium up to now, as it uses capital services flows rather than capital stock to measure the contribution of capital factor to production growth. Contributions of the main industries to value added, employment and productivity growth are also estimated.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-07 (en),
This paper presents the methodology for the compilation of a time series of supply and use tables for Belgium in current and constant prices for the period 1995-2002. These data have been produced at the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau within the framework of the EUKLEMS project and constitute an input for the project’s productivity database. The compilation of the time series was based on national accounts data and existing supply and use tables. The methodology consisted in splitting several industries and products, adapting existing data to the latest national accounts revisions, estimating missing tables as well as deflating current price supply and use tables.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-07 (en),
This Working Paper presents the different methodologies currently used to construct a volume index of capital services and analyzes the effects of methodological changes on capital services and total factor productivity estimates for Belgium over the period 1970-2004. The measurement of capital services is realized in two steps. First, productive capital stocks have to be estimated for each type of asset. Two methodologies are generally used: the geometric and the hyperbolic profile. Secondly, these stocks are aggregated, using the user costs of capital (exante or ex-post approach) as weights to derive an overall index. For the economy as a whole and the entire period, under an ex-post approach, the volume indices of capital services estimated with a hyperbolic age-efficiency profile grow at a higher rate than the indices estimated with a geometric profile. This general conclusion is, however, not observed in every sector. Under an ex-ante approach, the different volume indices are quite similar for the whole economy, even if the indices grow generally at a slightly higher rate in the case of a geometric pattern. A higher growth rate of the volume indices generates a higher capital contribution and, consequently, a lower TFP contribution. Over long periods of time, the different TFP estimates are relatively similar. Over shorter periods, the different methodologies generate more significant variations in the TFP contribution.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-07 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-07 (nl),
Partant des deux études réalisées par le Bureau fédéral du Plan en 2006 sur les problématiques indissociables de l’énergie et de la lutte contre les changements climatiques, ce document fournit un éclairage sur des enjeux de la politique énergétique belge face au défi climatique.
Le document est structuré en trois parties. La première partie explicite quelques étapes clés de la négociation des objectifs de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre post-2012 dans un cadre européen et précise le cadre d’analyse utilisé dans ce document. Partant d’un objectif européen de réduction de 30 % en 2030 par rapport à 1990, une évaluation des impacts de la réalisation de cet objectif a été effectuée pour la Belgique ; elle est décrite dans la deuxième partie. Trois dimensions de l’évaluation sont abordées : l’évolution du système énergétique belge à politique inchangée, l’impact sur le système énergétique de l’objectif européen et l’impact de politiques climatiques sur l’économie belge. La troisième partie décrit quant à elle des transformations du système énergétique et de la société compatibles avec un développement durable en 2050. Ces transformations pourraient se concrétiser en particulier grâce à des efforts ciblés de recherche et développement et de changements de comportements, et par là conduire à des réductions des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 50 % à 80 % au niveau belge.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-07 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-06 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-06 (nl),
In network industries the market reform that is being pursued by national and supranational authorities should lead to an improvement of efficiency, which spills over into a beneficial macroeconomic impact. This paper presents two alternative simulations of the potential impact in Belgium. These simulations give very different outcomes, but are still complementary. A macroeconometric approach seems to be more realistic in the short and mid term because it has been built up from observed behavioural relationships. A general-equilibrium approach gives rise to drawing some lessons about the conditions that make the impact more pronounced in the long term.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-06 (en),
A la demande des partenaires sociaux, le secrétariat du Conseil Central de l’Economie a réalisé un diagnostic de l’état de la recherche et de l’innovation en Belgique (CRB, 2006). Un des principaux problèmes identifiés dans ce diagnostic est la part limitée du secteur public dans le financement de la recherche. Au-delà d’un problème quantitatif, les résultats atteints par le système d’innovation belge conduisent aussi à s’interroger sur l’efficacité de ce financement public.
Working Papers - Working paper 09-06 (mix),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-06 (nl),
Dans ce Working Paper, les instruments utilisés au BFP sont classifiés en trois groupes : modèles nationaux, modèles internationaux et autres outils et méthodes. Les instruments décrits dans ce document sont utilisés pour produire des analyses et des projections dans un large éventail de domaines : analyses de cycles économiques et projections à court terme, analyses macrosectorielles et perspectives à moyen terme, projections à long terme et problématique du vieillissement, relations inter-sectorielles, économie internationale, analyses du marché de l’emploi, finances publiques, analyses démographiques, économie des transports, analyses du marché de l’énergie, questions environnementales et développement durable. Ce document ne donne qu’une vue d’ensemble des principaux outils et des principales méthodes. Pour plus d’informations, chaque fiche descriptive est suivie d’une liste brève de documents plus techniques et d’applications, ainsi que de l'adresse mail de contact au BFP.
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-06 (en), (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-06 (nl),
The Belgian Study Group on Ageing of the High Council of Finance, in its Annual Report, publishes the results of research on the budgetary and social effects of ageing. In this context, the Federal Planning Bureau, in its capacity as secretariat and main research body of the Committee, has in recent years been stepping up its efforts to deve lop models based on socioeconomic micro data. The results of one of these models, de signed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators, are presented in this paper.
Working Papers - Working paper 05-06 (en),
This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils as well as their role in the budgetary planning process. These institutions, created or reformed in depth in a context of large public deficits and increasing public debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with the regionalization of the Belgian state, are the result of a maturing process. The National Accounts Institute covers the positive side of the budgetary process, while the High Council of Finance deals with the normative side. Concerning the former domain, the creation of an independent institution to provide unbiased forecasts undeniably contributed to the consolidation of public finances in Belgium. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings. Our chief recommendations for making the budgetary process successful are: institutions dealing with positive economics should enjoy a fully independent status but remain public; positive and normative issues should be completely separated from an institutional point of view; and responsibility should be shared between several strong independent institutions so as to minimize political pressure.
Working Papers - Working paper 04-06 (en),
Après le compromis intervenu au Conseil européen de décembre 2005, le Parlement européen a finalement approuvé, ce 17 mai 2006, le budget européen pour les sept prochaines années (les Perspectives financières 2007-2013).
Une publication rassemble, à l’initiative du Bureau fédéral du Plan, les analyses effectuées durant la période des négociations par des experts de la Région wallonne, de la Région flamande et du Bureau fédéral du Plan, qui ont apporté leur soutien technique aux négociateurs belges.
Cette publication dresse le bilan des négociations communautaires sur les Perspectives financières et détaille les résultats du compromis, en examinant de près ses implications financières pour la Belgique.
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-06 (mix),
In this Working Paper, we describe how we used stochastic simulation to evaluate the risks surrounding the January 2006 NIME Economic Outlook (NEO) for the world economy. We summarise the main results by showing confidence intervals around the baseline projection as well as probabilities that certain events will occur. The results presented in this Working Paper are of an illustrative nature and do not constitute an update of the January 2006 NIME Economic Outlook.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-06 (en),
Bureau fédéral du Plan
