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Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
In deze paper wordt onderzocht wat de impact is op de tewerkstellingsduur van de beroepsopleidingen die de overheid organiseert voor werklozen. Er wordt gewerkt met longitudinale micro-data betreffende RVA-uitkeringstrekkers. De paper maakt gebruik van statistische technieken uit de overlevingsanalyse en besteedt veel aandacht aan een zorgvuldige samenstelling van de controlegroep. Meer bepaald wordt gecorrigeerd voor niet-observeerbare heterogeniteit via een inschatting van de zogenaamde intrinsieke kwaliteit van elke persoon op basis van zijn eigen tewerkstellingsverleden. Uit de daaropvolgende statistische analyse blijkt dat beroepsopleidingen een significant positieve invloed uitoefenen op de tewerkstellingsduur.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-06 (nl),
In de loop van 2005 stelde de federale regering het Generatiepact voor. De invoering van een pensioenbonus is een centrale maatregel uit dat pakket. In deze Working Paper wordt nagegaan wat de mogelijke effecten zijn van die pensioenbonus op het arbeidsaanbod van mannelijke en vrouwelijke arbeiders en bedienden. Dat gebeurt door het effect van de maatre-gel te simuleren in het Micro-Economisch Pensioenmodel MEP. Het invoeren van de pensioen-bonus zal leiden tot een daling van de impliciete kosten van het uitstellen van het pensioen.
Hierbij dienen echter enkele kanttekeningen gemaakt te worden. Ten eerste wordt het effect van die bonus voor een deel wegbelast, en ten tweede lijkt dat effect voor vrouwen sterker te zijn dan voor mannen, en ook sterker voor arbeiders dan bedienden.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-06 (nl),
Andere publicaties - OPVERG200603 - Advice (mix),
This year, the Belgian economy should register a GDP growth of 2.7%. In 2007, economic growth should slow down to 2.2%.
In line with the international economic situation, Belgian export growth should strengthen to 5.4% this year and decrease to 4.9% in 2007. The current account surplus should hardly change. In 2006 this is due to the sharp increase in oil prices, which leads to a deterioration in the terms of trade, whereas in 2007 imports and exports should increase to the same extent, while the terms of trade stabilise.
Domestic demand should grow at a slower pace as business investment growth weakens somewhat after last year’s substantial catching-up. This is partially compensated for by a strengthening of public expenditure and especially by private consumption. Private consumption growth should accelerate to 2.3% in 2006 and 2% in 2007 (from 1.1% in 2005), thanks to the increase in households’ real disposable income and (at least in 2006) a further drop in the household savings ratio. Domestic employment should increase by on average 41,000 units in 2006 and 45,600 units in 2007. As the number of jobs is growing faster than the labour force, the unemployment rate (large administrative definition) is expected to diminish from 14.3% in 2005 to 13.7% in 2007. Nevertheless, the harmonised Eurostat unemployment rate (based on labour force surveys) should still increase from 8.4% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2006, only to drop to 8.3% next year.
Headline inflation, as measured by the national index of consumer prices (NICP), should amount to 1.9% in 2006 and 2007 (after 2.8% in 2005). This year, the inflation picture is blurred by the introduction of a new NICP-basket based on the household budget survey of 2004. Measured by the deflator of private consumption, which is not affected by this technical factor, inflation should only drop to 2.4% in 2006 and ease further to 1.9% in 2007. The steady decline in inflation mainly results from the moderate wage cost increase, the appreciation of the euro and the stabilisation of oil prices expected in the course of 2007.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-06 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic forecasts 2007 (fr), (nl),
Andere publicaties - OPVERG200602 - Advice (mix),
This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils - the High Council of Finance and the National Accounts Institute - as well as their role in the budgetary planning process and emphasizes the part taken by the FPB in producing independent macroeconomic forecasts. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings.
Artikels - Working Paper 04-06
This paper presents the results of a micro simulation model designed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators. The unit of observation in the model is the household. In order to project the evolution of household incomes over time, we have specified a model that links the total observed household income to the evolution of a set of macro income indicators that reflect the different ‘micro’ sources of income.
Artikels - Working Paper 05-06
In Belgium, as well as in other European countries, the use of R&D tax incentives has become more popular in recent years. It remains, however, important to evaluate the effectiveness of those new and existing measures.
Artikels - Working Paper 06-06
In this paper, the tools and methods currently used at the FPB are classified in three groups: national models; international models; and other tools and methods. The listed FPB’s instruments are used to produce analyses and projections in a wide range of areas: business cycle analyses and short-term forecasting, macro-sectoral analyses and medium-term outlook, long-term projections and the issue of ageing, intersectoral relationships, international economics, labour market analyses, public finance, demographic analyses, transport economics, energy market analyses, environmental issues and sustainable development. This paper gives only a bird’s-eye view of the most important tools and methods. At the end of each instrument’s description, references to a short-list of technical papers, applications and to FPB contact addresses can be found.
Artikels - Working Paper 07-06
Two Working Papers on the macroeconomic impact of network industry reform have been published. The first is a detailed report in Dutch, the second a summary paper in English. The analysis builds on a simulation by FPB’s macroeconometric model HERMES, and a simulation by IMF’s general equilibrium model GEM. Although both simulations were based on the same exogenous input, they gave significantly different outcomes. This sheds light on the applicability of different modelling approaches to an issue at hand.
Artikels - Working Paper 08-06 / 10-06
This working paper analyses public financing in two countries that have already reached the Barcelona goal (R&D expenditure on GDP at least equal to 3%), Finland and Sweden, and compares it with the situation in Belgium. This comparison covers not only the quantitative aspects but also the organisational dimension of the public support for innovation.
Artikels - Working Paper 09-06
The August 2006 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic outlook for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using nime, the Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. The August 2006 issue also features a stochastic evaluation of the projection’s main results for the euro area, for the group of countries comprising Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, for the US and for Japan.
Artikels - NIME 2006 - AUG
In network industries the market reform that is being pursued by national and supranational authorities should lead to an improvement of efficiency, which spills over into a beneficial macroeconomic impact. This paper presents two alternative simulations of the potential impact in Belgium. These simulations give very different outcomes, but are still complementary. A macroeconometric approach seems to be more realistic in the short and mid term because it has been built up from observed behavioural relationships. A general-equilibrium approach gives rise to drawing some lessons about the conditions that make the impact more pronounced in the long term.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-06 (en),
Working Papers - Working paper 09-06 (mix),
In the Royal Decree de dato December 6, 2005 (published in the Belgian Official Journal1 of December 19, 2005) the installation of a Commission Energy 2030 was officialised: the Commission is made up of a number of Belgian and foreign experts who will carefully scrutinize the energy future of Belgium on a long term horizon (2030). In order to fulfil this task, it was decided to start from a quantitative, scientific base. Because of the long expertise in modelling and analysing of long term energy projections, the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) was asked to take up the task of providing the Commission with the necessary input. This input will subsequently be studied by the Commission, as well as complemented with analyses and other activities executed in its bosom.
This report aims at gathering the work carried out by the FPB in the above framework. The heart of the analysis of the Belgian energy outlook to 2030 is provided by a set of energy scenarios. These scenarios provide a quantitative basis for the analysis of environmental, energy and economic challenges Belgium will be faced with in the coming years. Doing so, the analysis gives a valuable input to the report the Commission Energy 2030 has to deliver to M. Verwilghen, the federal Minister of Energy.
Andere publicaties - REPENERGY0601 (en), (en),
Het planning paper 101 “Economisch structuurbeleid: de Lissabonagenda » wil de micro-economische dimensie van de Lissabon strategie analyseren. Het is de bedoeling de theoretische grondslagen van die pijler te verduidelijken, evenals de ontwikkeling van de opvattingen bij de uitvoering van dit gedeelte van de strategie en van de noodzakelijke coördinatie met de twee andere pijlers van de strategie, en de resultaten, zowel op het niveau van de Unie als geheel als op het Belgische niveau. Daartoe wordt ook de herziene strategie van Lissabon besproken die werd goedgekeurd op de Europese Raad van Brussel in maart 2005 en de actie toespitst op een partnerschap voor groei en werkgelegenheid.
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 101 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-06 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-06 (en), (fr), (nl),
The August 2006 issue of the NIME Outlook for the World Economy presents a 2006-2012 macroeconomic projection for the major areas of the world. The outlook was produced using NIME, the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau’s macroeconometric world model. This issue features a stochastic evaluation of its world economic outlook. The major technical assumptions behind the outlook as well as a brief description of the NIME model are presented in the appendix.
Vooruitzichten - NEO 02-06 (en),
Deze studie werd gemaakt op vraag van de federale minister van Leefmilieu, Dhr. Tobback. In augustus 2005 vroeg hij aan het Federaal Planbureau om scenario’s in verband met de vermindering van de broeikasgasemissies (BKG) in België tegen 2020 en 2050 uit te werken en te analyseren in het kader van het klimaatbeleid na 2012. De vermindering van BKG-emissies dient overeen te komen met het afbouwtraject dat de Europese Unie voorstelt in het kader van de uitvoering van het raamverdrag van de Verenigde Naties inzake klimaatveranderingen. Het gaat om een vermindering van 15 à 30% tegen 2020 en van 60 à 80% tegen 2050 tegenover 1990 voor alle ontwikkelde landen.
Andere publicaties - Kyoto 2006 (mix),
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-06 (nl),
The Belgian Study Group on Ageing of the High Council of Finance, in its Annual Report, publishes the results of research on the budgetary and social effects of ageing. In this context, the Federal Planning Bureau, in its capacity as secretariat and main research body of the Committee, has in recent years been stepping up its efforts to deve lop models based on socioeconomic micro data. The results of one of these models, de signed to make short-term projections of poverty indicators, are presented in this paper.
Working Papers - Working paper 05-06 (en),
This paper describes the operating mode of the two existing Belgian fiscal councils as well as their role in the budgetary planning process. These institutions, created or reformed in depth in a context of large public deficits and increasing public debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with the regionalization of the Belgian state, are the result of a maturing process. The National Accounts Institute covers the positive side of the budgetary process, while the High Council of Finance deals with the normative side. Concerning the former domain, the creation of an independent institution to provide unbiased forecasts undeniably contributed to the consolidation of public finances in Belgium. In the context of the revised Stability and Growth Pact, lessons drawn from the Belgian experience can certainly be useful for other Member States willing to improve their fiscal institutional settings. Our chief recommendations for making the budgetary process successful are: institutions dealing with positive economics should enjoy a fully independent status but remain public; positive and normative issues should be completely separated from an institutional point of view; and responsibility should be shared between several strong independent institutions so as to minimize political pressure.
Working Papers - Working paper 04-06 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 03-06 (mix),
Federaal Planbureau
