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Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
This paper describes the compilation of the use tables for imports of goods and for trade margins for Belgium in 1995. It introduces a methodological novelty by integrating the compilation of both tables and systematically exploiting the fact that large parts of intermediary consumption and investment (i.e. those directly imported by the using firms) as well as exports (the direct exports by producers) bear no trade margins.
In order to do this we used intrastat and extrastat data on imports and exports of goods in 1995. The results of this approach differ significantly from those of a proportional distribution of imports and margins. Many statistical offices resort to this proportional distribution because of a lack of survey data on the destination of trade margins and imports. In Belgium the proportional approach is less appropriate because the product detail is too limited and the national account data are firm-based without distinguishing local kind of activities.
Working Papers - Working Paper 04-03 (en),
Despite the major corrections of technology stock prices over the past two years, which signalled the end of the ict hype of the late 1990s, there remains a large consensus that the economic importance of ict for firms and households only stands to increase. In order to clarify the linkages through which ict can affect economic activity, this paper discusses the possible impact of ict on three important measures of macroeconomic activity: long-run economic growth, cyclical growth and the nairu. The channels linking technical progress and economic activity are outlined and applied to ict. The discussion is largely theoretical but is illustrated with available results for Belgium.
Working Papers - Working Paper 02-03 (nl),
Rapporten - Sustainable development Report 2002 (fr), (nl),
Rapporten - Sustainable development Report Summary 2002 (de), (en), (fr), (nl),
Rapporten - Sustainable development Report 2002 - Folder (fr), (nl),
Rapporten - Sustainable development Report 2002 - CD Rom
Andere publicaties - Input-Output Table 1995 (fr), (nl),
Network industries are industries whose activity involves conveying people, products or information from one place to the other via some kind of physical network. They include transport networks, information networks and utility networks. Network industries basically consist of three types of activity: upstream activities involving the production of core products such as equipment and means of transport; infrastructure activities involving the construction, maintenance and operation of the physical network; downstream activities involving the delivery of network services to final consumers. Network industries have specific characteristics from an economic point of view. Three of these are particularly notable, the last one also from a social perspective.
Working Papers - Working Paper 01-03 (en),
This overview of the literature dedicated to the new economic geography intends to highlight the main mechanisms, which contribute to explain the spatial concentration of economic activity, in particular the formation of cities and industrial districts. This should provide some guidelines for an empirical analysis of the determinants of the spatial distribution of economic activity in urban areas in Belgium and for suggestions of economic policy instruments capable of influencing location choices.
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-02 (en),
Het Federaal Planbureau (FPB) kreeg in het kader van een onderzoekscontract met de federale Diensten voor Wetenschappelijke, Technische en Culturele Aan-gelegenheden (DWTC) de opdracht een studie te maken getiteld: “Transitie naar de informatiemaatschappij: perspectieven en uitdagingen voor België”. Eén luik van dat onderzoek slaat op de impact van die transitie op armoede en dualisering in België. Het FPB heeft dat onderzoeksluik opgedeeld in twee fasen en publicaties. In een eerste fase hebben Jean-Maurice Frère en Christophe Joyeux (2000) in het rapport ‘ICT en dualisering: een inleidende studie’ de termen armoede, sociale uitsluiting en dualisering conceptueel verklaard.
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-02 (nl),
The aim of this working paper is to carry out a descriptive analysis of the geographical concentration of the manufacturing sector in Belgium, from which geographical agglomeration of sectors of activity is analyzed at a fine industrial level, i.e. NACEBEL 4-digit industries.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-02 (en),
Andere publicaties - Euren Autumn Report (en),
Andere publicaties - City 01-2002 (fr), (nl),
De woonpatronen van de elgen blijken voornamelijk beïnvloed door gezinsgrootte,leeftijd,inkomen,beroep,werk of school,diploma en nationaliteit.De hedendaagse woonpatronen van de elgische bevolking worden in hetgeen volgt onder de loep genomen. Ook de bevolkingsdynamiek over de laatste decennia wordt bestudeerd.Het markante aan deze studie is dat ze voor heel het land uitgevoerd werd,en bovendien de gemeente als ruimtelijke eenheid beschouwt.
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-02 (nl),
In October, the FPB updated its medium-term outlook for Belgium until 2007. This projection is pointing towards a GDP growth of 2.5% on average from 2003 to 2007. This development can be largely accounted for by domestic demand, whereas the role of (net) exports is expected to be more limited. Private consumption should be more dynamic during the forecasting period than during the nineties thanks to a favourable development in households’ disposable income (stimulated especially by reductions in personal income tax). The growth in gross fixed capital formation should attain an average of 2.9% during the period 2003-2007, notably reflecting the expansion in business investment. Export growth should be 5.1% on average: the structural loss in export market share should be confirmed and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth is expected to decline.
The inflation rate should be below 2% in the medium term. Assuming no shocks on commodity prices, the main domestic factors behind this moderate inflation are wage increases compatible with productivity gains, cuts in social security contributions and the extension of production capacity.
Employment should show a gradual improvement: an increase of 33,000 jobs on average should be observed during the 2003-2007 period (as compared with an increase of 40,000 jobs, on average, during the 1996-2000 period). However, a large proportion of the labour expansion should be absorbed by an increase in the labour force. Therefore, the unemployment rate in a broad sense should only decrease from 13.5% by mid-2002 to 13.2% in 2007.
Assuming no policy change but taking into account (as far as possible) the measures decided within the framework of the 2003 budget, the financing capacity of public administrations should be close to balance between 2003 and 2006 and a small surplus would be observed in 2007. Taking into account the computed output gap and the resulting cyclical budget component, the structural (cyclically adjusted) balance would be positive but slightly declining from 2002 onwards.
The objective of a positive financing capacity (0.5% of GDP in 2005 as mentioned in the new Stability Program for Belgium) is not expected to be reached without additional budgetary measures. However, the total public debt to GDP ratio should continue its decline, but at a slower pace if compared with the 2001 forecast. The decrease should represent about 21% of GDP between 2001 and 2007.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 04-02 (en),
Andere publicaties - IBFP 2002-01 (fr),
Andere publicaties - AIECE General Report (en),
We are grateful to our colleagues at the Federal Planning Bureau and to staff at the National Accounts Division of the National Bank of Belgium for their comments and suggestions. We also like to thank Marleen Keytsman for her help in preparing the document. All remaining errors are ours.
In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the construction of ICT investment and capital stocks in Belgium. The series are obtained in nominal and in real terms and at macroeconomic as well as sector level. The ICT assets distinguished are IT equipment and communications equipment, leaving software out of the analysis. After calculation of investment expenditure on both assets, the expenditure is transformed into quality-adjusted volume terms by means of harmonised price indices derived from appropriate U.S. indices. Productive capital stocks are calculated by means of the perpetual inventory method, and rental prices of the ICT capital services are obtained as well.
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-02 (en),
In this paper, we investigate with a macroeconometric world model how mone-tary policy rules affect economic activity in the euro area. In the economic literature, there is a general consensus that a credible monetary policy rule is to be preferred to discretionary interventions by central banks because monetary surprises can increase expected inflation and worsen economic performance (Kydland and Prescott (1977)). Several monetary policy rules have been proposed, for example, money targeting (Friedman (1956)), inflation targeting (Bernanke et al. (1999)), nominal income targeting (Hall and Mankiw (1994), Frankel and Chinn (1995)), and an interest rate rule that targets inflation and output relative to a reference value (Taylor (1993)). Although the theoretical merits of these rules have been thoroughly discussed in the literature, the empirical investigation of the implications of these rules has only recently commenced (Bryant et al. (1993)).
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-02 (en),
This brief overview will consider e-gov achievements and plans at each policy level, together with the specific organizational and management systems that are being constructed for the purpose of implementing them. E-gov can be considered as a very large object to study. The aim of this paper is not to be exhaustive but to give an overview of the most significant initiatives in the area.
In Belgium e-gov is not an end in itself but is considered as a tool of the so-called “Copernicus Plan” (www.copernicus.be) to modernize the public service in order to achieve better service delivery to citizens, better functioning of the civil services and a simplification of administrative burdens.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-02 (en),
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-02 (fr),
The world economy recovers slowly after a net decline in 2001. Both ‘soft’ (e.g. confidence indicators) and ‘hard’ indicators (e.g. industrial production and world trade) reached a turning point by the end of last year. In a first wave, the magnitude of the upswing, mainly in the US, was a surprise. More recently, however, several confidence indicators started to decline again.
In this context, Belgian real GDP should grow by only 0.7 % in 2002, somewhat below last year’s figure of 1 %. Two consecutive years of weak economic growth should lead to a fall in domestic employment (-0.2 % in 2002), the first decline since 1994.
The global recovery scenario for 2003 remains in place, despite the current hitch in the international business climate. In Belgium, the cyclical recovery is already clearly visible in exports and most recent indicators are pointing to a positive reversal in private consumption in the course of this year. The consequences of last year’s downturn for investor confidence and employment however have not yet been overcome, but this should change as the correction of overinvestment seems to be gradually coming to an end and entrepreneurs should begin to increase their staff by the end of this year, reacting with a certain time lag to the recovery of economic activity. As a result, Belgian real GDP should grow by 2.6 % next year. The underlying scenario of a sustained recovery in the world economy during the coming quarters is however surrounded by a number of risks, as is reflected in the current volatility of stock markets.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-02 (en),
The macroeconomic results presented here - as summarised in Table 2 - are based on ICT investment expenditure data that are compatible with the data of the 1995 input-output. As the level of the revised ICT investment expenditure is larger than the ICT investment expenditure used in WP 7-02, the results of the growth accounting exercise point to a somewhat larger contribution of ICT Capital accumulation to growth.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-02 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic Forecasts 2003 (fr), (fr), (nl), (nl),
In this paper, the impact of ICT on economic and productivity growth is investigated in the context of the Belgian economy. The analysis is conducted at aggregate and branch level. The impact of ICT on economic growth through productivity gains can be transmitted via three different channels, namely increase in the ICT capital available per worker (capital deepening), technical progress in the ICT producer sectors (TFP growth) and finally, technical progress in the ICT user sectors through spillover effects (TFP growth).
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-02 (en),
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