Nieuws
Perscommuniqués
Colloquium
Laatste 5 gegevensbanken
Publicaties
Om de transparantie en informatieverstrekking te bevorderen, publiceert het FPB regelmatig de methoden en resultaten van zijn werkzaamheden. De publicaties verschijnen in verschillende reeksen, zoals de Vooruitzichten, de Working Papers en de Planning Papers. Sommige rapporten kunnen ook hier geraadpleegd worden, evenals de nieuwsbrieven van de Short Term Update die tot 2015 werden gepubliceerd. U kunt op thema, publicatietype, auteur en jaar zoeken.
Bij het verschijnen van de input-outputtabel van 1995 werd de vraag gesteld naar de meest opmerkelijke verschillen met de vorige tabel voor 1990. Dergelijke vergelijking is vooral interessant omdat de input-outputtabel van 1990 nog deel uitmaakte van de oude nationale rekeningen en deze van 1995 gebaseerd is op het nieuwe stelsel gekenmerkt door andere concepten, classificaties, definities en basisstatistieken.
Working Papers - Working Paper 19-03 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 18-03 (fr),
De Wet van 21 december 1994 heeft het Federaal Planbureau, als instelling die deel uitmaakt van het Instituut voor de Nationale Rekeningen, het opstellen van de economische begroting als taak toevertrouwd. Deze paper schetst het insti-tutionele kader waarbinnen de opmaak van de economische begroting gebeurt en geeft een overzicht van het gebruik dat ervan wordt gemaakt. Tevens wordt ingegaan op de gevolgde methodologie en wordt beschreven welke instrumen-ten hiervoor werden ontwikkeld.
Working Papers - Working Paper 17-03 (fr), (nl),
Both confidence indicators and some hard data now suggest that economic activity in the euro area should register a moderate recovery during the last part of 2003. Even if risks are still present, they are more balanced than a few months ago.
During the last few months, confidence is rising again in Belgium. GDP growth is forecast to pick up slightly in the second half of the year, and amount to 0.9% in 2003. With a far less dynamic pace than was seen during the previous cyclical recoveries in 1996 and 1999, annual average GDP growth should amount to 1.8% next year.
This year, as a result of the stronger euro and the weakness of the euro area economy, net exports should make a very negative contribution towards economic growth (-0.9%). Real GDP growth should be exclusively driven by domestic demand (1.8%) as a result of the cutback in personal income tax rates and the improvement of business profitability. Next year, domestic demand should grow at the same pace as this year, but GDP growth should be more balanced.
A gradual improvement in domestic employment is not expected to take place until the last quarter of 2003. In response to this slowly improving labour market situation in 2004, the household savings rate should not begin to decrease until the second half of 2004. Next year, CPI inflation should be by 1.4%, as compared with 1.6% this year. This fall is inspired by the past appreciation of the euro and the moderate development of unit labour costs.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 03-03 (en),
Vooruitzichten - Economic Forecasts 2004 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 16-03 (fr),
Working Papers - Working Paper 15-03 (fr),
This paper assesses to which extent the policy of reducing employers’ social security contributions has increased market sector employment in 1995-2000. The analytical framework is a macroeconometric labour market model of the market sector that models added value, the employment of labour and capital, the setting of wages and prices, the matching of supply and demand on the labour market, and the dynamics that tie short-run behaviour to the steady state. The real wage cost depends on the wage gap, labour productivity, the replacement rate of unemployment benefits to the take home wage, and tensions on the labour market. The model comes in two versions. The ‘right-to-manage’ version links the wage cost to the unemployment rate; the ‘job-search’ version ties the wage cost to the unemployment-vacancy-ratio.
Working Papers - Working Paper 14-03 (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 13-03 (fr), (nl),
In deze studie worden de uitgaven voor milieubescherming en de lucht- en watervervuiling in België bestudeerd vanuit het kader van de milieurekeningen. De milieurekeningen laten toe om milieugegevens aan economische data te koppelen, wat hen een uitgelezen werkinstrument maakt voor het beleid inzake duurzame ontwikkeling.
Afgesloten reeksen - Planning Paper 93 (fr), (nl),
Each year, the Federal Planning Bureau (fpb) prepares a medium-term outlook for the Belgian economy with its macro-econometric hermes model. One of the key inputs of this exercise is a baseline scenario for the Belgian international economic environment, which includes an outlook for the output, imports, prices and financial variables of the major trading partners of Belgium. Traditionally, this international environment is based on the medium-term outlook presented by the European Commission in its Autumn Forecasts or the most recent available medium-term outlook of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (oecd).
Working Papers - Working Paper 12-03 (en),
This Working Paper reflects the contribution of the fpb to the second work package of the agir project, work package organized by the German diw. It collects in a first attempt a lot of data to approach the volume and evolution of the use of health and nursing care by the elderly. Yet the authors are well aware of the limitations of the present study which can certainly be improved by more detailed data and refinement of the concepts.
Working Papers - Working Paper 11-03 (en),
This Working Paper reflects the contribution of the fpb to the first work package of the agir project, organized by the Spanish fedea. It thoroughly studies the bio-demographic aspects of population ageing. The aim is to get a better understanding of the nature of ageing. Not only is it important to analyse how fast a population gets older, it is also important to see what effect age has on the population’s health and fitness, especially of the elderly.
Working Papers - Working Paper 10-03 (en),
The macro-econometric nime model is one of the analytical tools used by the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau to improve its understanding of developments in the Belgian international economic environment. This paper shows some concrete applications with this model by analysing the spill-over effects of shocks from the United States (us) to the euro area and the rest of the world. The shocks we investigate are a temporary increase in public expenditures in the us, a us-led world-wide permanent increase in total factor productivity, an increase in the risk premium in the us stock market, and a temporary 1 percentage point increase in the us short-term interest rate. Here, we will discuss how these shocks affect economic activity in the us and how they are transmitted to the euro area. Such an analysis can be useful because it catalogues answers to questions which are often posed by economists who want to assess their medium term projection of the euro area economy.
Working Papers - Working Paper 09-03 (en),
Andere publicaties - Euren Summer Report (en),
Eén van de meest markante feiten van de economische evolutie in de jaren 90 is de divergentie in groei tussen industrielanden. Die divergentie is er de oorzaak van dat de de trend naar convergentie die tijdens de laatste decennia werd waargenomen, wordt omgebogen. Met name de Verenigde Staten kenden een langdurige periode van economische groei met banenschepping en zonder inflatiedruk, terwijl de economische groei in Europa tijdens dezelfde periode lager was en minder lang duurde. Binnen de mogelijke verklaringen voor dit fenomeen wordt vaak verwezen naar de sterk verschillende evolutie van de productiviteitswinst aan weerskanten van de Atlantische Oceaan.
Andere publicaties - IT 01-2003 (fr), (nl),
In the empirical literature, the missing link between ict investments and increa-ses in firm performance is organisational change. This paper aims to assess the impact of ict at firm-level in Belgium, by means of case studies with 220 firms in four sectors: banking, machinery, printing/publishing and transport. The chosen sectors were ict-intensive in 1995, have enjoyed productivity growth during the 1995-2000 period and were probably ready for reorganisation at the time of the interviews.
Working Papers - Working Paper 08-03 (en),
Economic activity remained subdued in the euro area in the last quarter of 2002 and early estimates point to a stabilisation in the first quarter of the current year. International organizations are forecasting a gradual but only modest recovery in the course of 2003. In Belgium, GDP growth was higher than in the main neighbouring countries in the last quarter of 2002. This should also be the case in the first quarter of 2003. The FPB leading indicator for Belgium confirms the scenario of a recovery during the course of 2003. Annual GDP growth should nevertheless be only slightly above 1% this year.
Various risks could jeopardise the recovery in the euro zone: the continuing depreciation of the USD, and a slower recovery of confidence due to the situation in the labour market and/or the stock market. The medium-term outlook for Belgium is pointing towards a GDP growth rate of 2.4% during the 2004-08 period, which is slightly higher than potential (2.1%).This favourable development is due to both net exports and domestic demand. Private consumption should become more dynamic during the 2004-2008 period, particularly thanks to the increase in households’ disposable income (especially due to tax reform). Investment growth should attain 3% during the 2004-08 period, mainly reflecting the increase in business investment. Average export growth should be 5.3% during the same period and the contribution of net exports to GDP growth should be 0.3%. Thanks to limited wage and import cost increases and a negative output gap in the first years of the projection, the inflation rate will remain below 2% in the medium term.
The development of employment should reflect the favourable macroeconomic context, the limited increases in wage costs and various policy measures. After stagnating in 2003, about 32,000 jobs should be created every year during the 2004-2008 period (as compared with 43,000 jobs created on average during 1996-2002). Industrial employment should fall by 38,000 persons during the 2003-2008 period and the number of jobs created in market services should exceed 200,000. The unemployment rate (including long term unemployment of older workers) is still increasing in 2003 (from 13.3% to 14.0%), but will subsequently fall to 12.9% in 2008. The proportion of active job seekers within broad unemployment will increase, due to recent policy measures aimed at limiting early retirement.
The public accounts are expected to show a clear deterioration, with a net public administrations borrowing requirement appearing in 2003. Equilibrium is not expected to be reached until the end of the period covered by the forecast.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 02-03 (en),
Andere publicaties - Report 01-03 (fr), (nl),
Vooruitzichten - Economic outlook 2003-2008 (fr), (nl),
Working Papers - Working Paper 07-03 (fr),
Since 1994 the Federal Planning Bureau has been using the annual version of the econometric model modtrim as a central tool to produce its short-term macroeconomic forecasts. At the origin of the project, and as its name indicates, this annual version was meant to be short-lived and quickly replaced by a quarterly version. Unfortunately, the lack of quarterly national accounts prevented from doing so for several years. In 1998, the Institute for National Accounts published official quarterly accounts for the first time and the construction of the quarterly version of the model started in Spring 2000. On that occasion, the opportunity was taken to reassess all behavioural equations of the model. The more limited availability of quarterly data, in comparison with annual data, implied that a more aggregated version of the accounting framework of the yearly model had to be constructed.
Working Papers - Working Paper 06-03 (en),
Deze studie geeft een overzicht van de voornaamste effecten van verhoogde energieheffingen voor de Belgische economie. Deze variantanalyse is bedoeld als antwoord op een vraag van de Ministerraad van 14 juni 2002 (dossier ingediend door de Minister van Mobiliteit en Vervoer en de Staatssecretaris voor Energie). Op basis van die vraag worden 4 groepen scenario’s gesimuleerd.
Working Papers - Working Paper 05-03 (fr), (nl),
Vooruitzichten - Economic Forecasts 2003 C
In the first half of 2002 the world economy seemed to recover from the sharp decline during 2001. This recovery was not, however, confirmed during the second half of the year.
In this muddled international business climate, the recovery of the Belgian economy is postponed until the second half of 2003. In annual average terms, GDP should grow this year by 1.3%. For the first two quarters of this year, positive but very modest GDP growth is assumed. Growth should be higher during the second half of the year, but clearly not as high as seen in previous economic recoveries in 1996 and 1999. Under these circumstances, the employment rate should fall for the second consecutive year, thus scoring 0.6 points lower than its previous peak in 2001. Consumer price inflation should remain rather stable at around 1.4%.
As economic agents are at present spellbound by the growing threat of a war in the Middle East, and the outcome of that conflict situation is hard to predict, the uncertainty margin surrounding the international economic context, is of course extremely high.
Afgesloten reeksen - Short Term Update 01-03 (en),
Federaal Planbureau
